Tropical storm Harvey forms east of the Lesser Antilles - Aug. 17th

Aug. 17, 2017 — Tropical storm Harvey forms east of the Lesser Antilles...

"Harvey" will move into the Eastern Caribbean Fri.  "Harvey" will battle some shear once deeper into the Caribbean before moving into Central America early next week.  "Harvey" will stay far to the south of Florida so no impacts on Jacksonville or any of Fl.

Note the strong convection over Hispaniola & Puerto Rico extending north to near & east of the Bahamas - that's in association with an upper level low which eventually may play a role in the intensity of "Harvey" as shear increases over the Central Caribbean.

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Model plots for "Harvey":

A trailing wave - '92L' - should end up farther north than "Harvey".  The wave should be moving into the SW Atlantic east of the Bahamas by late Mon. then potentially near S. Florida by midweek.  Shear will be increasing over parts of the SW Atlantic which may impact intensity in the long run.  The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!... an uptick in activity over the Atlantic Basin is underway & will continue for at least the next 10 days to 2 weeks.  Always be prepared!

Model plots for '92L':

East Atlantic -- as we head into the peak of the Cabo (Cape) Verde season, waves are rolling west off Africa.

Sea surface temps. in the main development region (MDR) of the deep tropical Atlantic are above avg. which can add "energy" for tropical systems:

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Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear) - increasing shear along the path of '91L' once/if into the Caribbean:

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Water vapor imagery:

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS shows African Saharan dust (orange & red) still pretty persistent & widespread over the E/NE Atlantic.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

The last advisory from the NHC on "Gert" was issued Thu. afternoon....

Cox Media Group