JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean Sea is showing signs of better organization, with thunderstorms increasing around its center overnight. Tropical storm Helene is expected to form later today and is forecasted to develop into a major hurricane by Thursday afternoon, potentially impacting the northeast Gulf Coast.
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Mike Buresh | Garrett Bedenbaugh | Corey Simma | Trevor Gibbs
Current Forecast
The system is expected to strengthen as it moves toward the Gulf Coast, with a projected landfall between Apalachicola and Cedar Key late Thursday. Shifts in the track are possible, and impacts will extend far beyond the center of the storm. A track closer to or east of Cedar Key would increase local impacts, while a track closer to Apalachicola would reduce them significantly.
Timing and Impacts:
- Wednesday Night: Expect rain bands with heavy rain, gusty winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes/waterspouts starting late afternoon and continuing through the night.
- Thursday: Significant rain and wind impacts, especially west of Lake City and Waycross, with hurricane conditions possible. Intermittent tropical storm conditions are likely in other areas. Older trees may fall due to saturated grounds.
- Beach & Coastal Impacts: High surf, rip currents, and beach erosion are expected, particularly during king tides. Minor to moderate flooding is likely along the St. Johns River, its tributaries, and other coastal areas prone to flooding Thursday evening into Friday morning.
- Friday: Conditions will improve mid-day as the storm moves inland, though it may still cause damage as far north as Atlanta.
Winds, Surge, and Rainfall
- Wind Gusts: 50-70+ mph, especially near I-75 and offshore from Northeast Florida’s coastline.
- Storm Surge: Onshore winds will likely cause at least some storm surge along the NE Florida coastline.
- Rain Totals: Significant rainfall could lead to localized flooding depending on the exact track.
Watches and Warnings:
- Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Southwest Florida and the Keys.
- Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are expected to be extended northward to include parts of the Central and Northeast Gulf Coast later today.
Here’s a look at your First Alert 7-Day Forecast:
- TODAY: Mostly sunny. High: 91°F
- TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low: 72°F
- WEDNESDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy. Showers late. 72/88°F
- THURSDAY (First Alert Weather Day): Cloudy, humid with rain and wind. Isolated tornadoes are possible. 75/85°F
- FRIDAY: Storm moving north. Decreasing clouds with showers/storms. 75/88°F
- SATURDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers/storms. 75/89°F
- SUNDAY: Partly sunny with a few showers/storms. 75/86°F
- MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers/storms. 73/86°F
Stay tuned for further updates as the system evolves. Full forecast updates will be provided at 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM, with intermediate position updates every three hours.
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