Michigan is considered one of the seven key swing states that could decide the 2024 presidential election — and part of the so-called blue wall of Rust Belt states considered pivotal for Democrats.
Polls out of Michigan show the state is a toss-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Three websites that aggregate battleground state surveys — the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — each have Harris leading Trump in the Wolverine State by two percentage points or less.
🗳 Key races
In addition to the presidential contest, Michigan is home to a key downballot race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, and former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican, that may help decide control of the U.S. Senate.
A poll conducted by AARP last month showed Slotkin with a slight 3-point advantage (49% to 46%) over Rogers.
↩️ Past election history
The results of the last three presidential elections in Michigan are as follows:
2020: Joe Biden (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) by 2.78%.
2016: Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) by 0.23%.
2012: Barack Obama (D) defeated Mitt Romney (R) by 9.46%.
📈 Which way the state is trending
Michigan had been reliably Democratic in presidential races for more than two decades — until 2016, when Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
📌 Why it matters
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — the so-called blue wall for Democrats — are critical for Harris. In 2016, Trump flipped all three, helping him win the presidency. In 2020, Joe Biden reclaimed all three, with Pennsylvania clinching his victory.