Pennsylvania is considered one of the seven key swing states that could decide the 2024 presidential election — and part of the so-called blue wall of Rust Belt states considered pivotal for Democrats. And given how much Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have spent campaigning there, it could be the state that decides the race.
Polls out of the Keystone show it's a virtual toss-up. Three websites that aggregate battleground state surveys — the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — each have Trump leading Harris in Pennsylvania by one percentage point or less, well within their margins of error.
🗳 Key races
In addition to the presidential contest, Pennsylvania is home to a key downballot race between Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican businessman Dave McCormick that may help decide control of the U.S. Senate.
A CBS News poll released last week showed Casey, the Democratic incumbent, with a modest six-point lead (48% to 42%) over McCormick, his Republican challenger.
↩️ Past election history
The results of the last three presidential elections in Pennsylvania are as follows:
2020: Joe Biden (D) defeated Donald Trump (R) by 1.16%
2016: Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) by 0.72%
2012: Barack Obama (D) defeated Mitt Romney (R) by 5.38%
📈 Which way the state is trending
Pennsylvania has voted for Democrats in five of the last six presidential elections — the lone exception being 2016, when Trump edged Clinton by just 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million cast, a margin of less than one percentage point.
📌 Why it matters
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — the so-called blue wall for Democrats — are critical for Harris. And with 19 electoral votes up for grabs, the Keystone State holds its biggest electoral prize. In 2016, Trump flipped all three, helping him win the presidency. In 2020, Biden reclaimed all three, with Pennsylvania clinching his victory.