LIVE UPDATES – The fight for control of Congress

Check back here through the night as we chronicle how the votes go in both the House and Senate:

–
8:10 am – Even before his news conference, the President is lashing out at Democrats, and the possibility that they will use the oversight power of the House to investigate him, and his administration.

7:40 am – President Trump will be weighing in from the White House later in the morning. It will be only his second solo news conference at the White House since taking office.

7:15 am – If you are just getting up, the Democrats have taken back the House, while the Republicans have expanded their Senate majority. 23 House races are not yet final, with 4 undetermined in the Senate.

5:15 am – With some races still not final from the election results, 21 House incumbents – all Republicans – were defeated on Tuesday. And there could still be a few more. That would mean over 80 lawmakers in the House will be new in January, a turnover of almost 19 percent. That's a little more turnover than in 2012 (78), but less than the 94 new members after the 2010 Tea Party election. Four Senators were defeated on Tuesday, with two more hanging in the balance as the votes continue to be counted (and recounted).

4:30 am – Rep. Dana Rohrabacher R-CA is the latest GOP lawmaker to seem like he is heading for defeat, as with 99 percent reporting, Rohrabacher is down by 2800 votes to Democrat Harley Rouda. There are several very close races in California which are still on the board.

4:15 am – If you are just tuning in, Democrats have won back the House, but their majority is going to be very small. Republicans have expanded their majority in the Senate by at least two seats – that could grow to four if they end up winning in Florida and Montana.

4:00 am – I’ve decided to have some ice cream at 4 am, and it was a good choice.

3:40 am – Remember how I said every vote counts earlier this morning? Well, the absentees which weren’t counted earlier in GA6 have now put Democrat Lucy McBath ahead of Rep. Karen Handel R-GA by about 900 votes.

2:55 am – Democrats get a little consolation prize in the Senate, as they seemingly win one Senate seat back in Nevada – (AP) — Republican Dean Heller concedes Nevada U.S. Senate race to Democrat Jacky Rosen.

2:45 am – Sometimes news organizations make mistakes on calling an election, and that seems to have happened in Texas 23, where Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) had been declared the winner, but now he’s dropped into second place, as Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones leads by 282 votes. One would assume there will be a recount.

2:25 am – EVERY VOTE COUNTS: 100% reporting in GA6 and Rep Karen Handel R-GA leads by just 57 votes out of over 302,000 cast. Think about that for a minute.

2:20 am – A story line we’ve heard before tonight. A female Democrat has defeated a GOP candidate, as the AP calls MI11 for the Democrats – Haley Stevens wins a GOP seat in the west Detroit suburbs for the Dems.

2:10 am – Democrats pick up a seat in South Carolina of all places. AP declares Democrat Joe Cunningham the winner in SC1, as Democrats win the seat of Rep Mark Sanford R-SC, who was defeated in the GOP primary, and then refused to endorse the Republican winner.

2:00 am – President Trump is still up at this hour – and he’s very happy with the Senate results.

1:30 am – New York did it four years ago, so it should be a surprise that in NY27, indicted GOP Rep Chris Collins looks to be a winner, as he leads by 3100 votes with 99% reporting.

1:00 am – The Republicans have a chance to make very big gains in the U.S. Senate, if two races fall their way in coming hours.

12:40 am – President Trump has called some of the Republicans who won key victories on Tuesday.

12:35 am – Indictments don’t seem to matter – at this point, two Republican lawmakers who were indicted on federal charges this fall are winning their re-election bids. Both Rep. Chris Collins R-NY and Rep. Duncan Hunter R-CA are ahead, though the results are not final.

12:20 am – Democrats are at the point now where every win they can get will add more breathing room to a narrow majority in the House. They’ve just picked up a second seat in Texas, flipping a suburban seat in Houston.

12:10 am – With more seats heading to Democrats in New York and other states, the AP has declared that Democrats will take control of the U.S. House in 2019: WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats have picked up 23 House seats, putting them on track to reach the 218 needed to seize control from GOP

12:00 am – The split decision in the Congress isn’t bothering President Trump, as he declares victory.

11:55 pm

11:45 pm – A number of young women have won seats in the House for Democrats. A big change.

11:35 pm – A real surprise in Oklahoma, as Rep. Steve Russell (R-OK) seems to have lost, as he trails by 3300 votes with all precincts reporting.

11:25 pm – Republicans definitely keeping the Senate. Democrats inching closer to winning the House.

11:10 pm – It looks like Democrats have pulled off a stunner and won three seats from the GOP in Virginia, as Elaine Luria was declared the winner over Rep. Scott Taylor R-VA in the Virginia Beach area, and now Abigail Spanberger has claimed victory over Rep. Dave Brat R-VA. Brat trails by 1900 votes with one precinct to report.

11:00 pm – At 11 pm, the fight for the Senate is over, though there are still some very important races for Senate that have to be tallied. In the House, Democrats are certainly making progress to net the 23 seats they need to win back the House, but it’s not official as yet.

10:40 pm – Sen. Ted Cruz’s victory in Texas means Democrats cannot win back the Senate in 2018.

10:35 pm – Three Republicans in Pennsylvania are behind at this hour, Rep Brian Fitzpatrick, Rep. Scott Perry and Rep. Mike Kelly. I don’t want to go all crazy on this, but if the Democrats can win those three, they would take a giant step forward in their quest to get the House. If the Republicans hold all three, that would be huge for them.

10:30 pm – Democrats in the House are slowly chipping away at the GOP majority, but it’s going to take several hours to figure out if they can do it. They have won 3 seats already in Pennsylvania. They have defeated Rep. Mike Coffman in Colorado. One seat in New Jersey has been lost by the GOP, along with one seat in Kansas.

10:10 pm – Pretty much the nail in the coffin for the U.S. Senate, as Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) wins easily in Tennessee. Add to that a GOP win in Indiana, and Democrats have run out of room to win back the Senate in 2018. The Blackburn win was much larger than expected.

9:55 pm – You don’t think every vote counts? In Virginia, Democratic challenger Elaine Luria leads Rep. Scott Taylor (R-VA) by 44 votes with 94 percent of precincts reporting.

9:50 pm – Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has survived a challenge led by President Trump. But with a victory in Indiana, this still seems like a Republican edge in the U.S. Senate.

9:25 pm – While the Senate still looks to be in the favor of the GOP, there are ominous signs in more races for Republicans. In Kansas, two GOP seats are at risk at this hour. Several Republicans trail in Illinois. And there could be a shocking upset in Texas and Oklahoma of sitting GOP lawmakers.

9:10 pm – The number of GOP seats in the House at risk continues to grow as more states start reporting returns. Along with slight leads in two key races in Virginia, Democrats have the edge in a series of races in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. As for the Senate, it looks like Republicans will hold the Senate – but there is a long way to go.

9:00 pm – Suddenly there is a late surge for Democrats in Virginia, as their candidates have gone ahead of two GOP incumbents with close to 90 percent of the vote in, as Rep. Scott Taylor R-VA and Rep. Dave Brat R-VA are both trailing by narrow margins. Every vote counts. That would be huge for Democrats.

8:50 pm – At this point, Republicans seem to be doing well in the Senate. They are leading Democratic incumbents in both Indiana and Florida. But there are some troubling signs for the GOP in the House. There isn’t a huge ‘blue wave,’ but Democrats are making progress toward the 23 seats needed to win back the House.

8:40 pm – The first bad news of the night for Republicans comes from Illinois, where three GOP lawmakers are all trailing Democratic challengers in the early vote. Democrats are going to win the race for Governor there, which will certainly help boost turnout for their candidates. Something to watch.

8:35 pm – The first early returns from New Jersey show three Democrats ahead in GOP seats. The numbers from New Jersey and Pennsylvania will start to show us soon whether Democrats can win the House or not.

8:25 pm – Outside of two seats around Miami, GOP candidates for Congress seem to be holding GOP seats that were in play. Good news for Republicans.

8:20 pm – Early vote totals from Texas show that GOP candidates for Congress there could have a tough night in the suburbs of Houston and Dallas, as Democrats really got their vote out. Whether that holds when the Election Day totals are added in, we don’t know that answer right now.

8:15 pm – Democrats make their first official pick up in Virginia, as Rep. Comstock loses in Virginia. Democrats are also leading narrowly in two South Florida districts. But GOP candidates are holding the line for the time being. In other words, there isn’t a blowout happening right now in returns from states on the East Coast.

7:45 pm – In VA10, Jennifer Wexton (D) is leading big over Rep Barbara Comstock R-VA, 58-42%. This may be the first seat to flip for Democrats tonight as they try to win back the House. The Democrats are also leading in KY6, with half of precincts reporting.

7:40 pm – One of the biggest races to watch tonight is for Governor in Georgia. Most people don’t realize it, but Georgia has a rule that if you don’t get a majority in the general election, there is a runoff. The question in Georgia is simple – will the race be so close that the Libertarian candidate causes a runoff.

7:30 pm – In Florida, Democrats won the early vote in the major cities like Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Miami, Tampa, and around Orlando. But there is a long way to go in both the Senate and Governor’s races in the Sunshine State.

7:20 pm – The same themes are being shown in Florida, where it’s all about how well Democrats can do in urban areas, versus how well the Republicans can do in rural areas. Remember, President Trump was able to offset big advantages for Democrats by churning out extra votes in smaller, more Republican counties. So far, we are seeing a repeat of that theme tonight in the Sunshine State.

7:10 pm – In the Indiana U.S. Senate race, Sen. Joe Donnelly D-IN continues to run better than other Democrats, while Mike Braun (R) is under-performing other statewide Republicans. But Braun is churning out more votes than past elections. Donnelly’s future will depend on how many votes he can churn out from suburban areas around Indianapolis and other urban areas like Gary, Fort Wayne, and others larger cities.

7:00 pm – A statement from the White House at this hour from Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders: “This in from Sarah Sanders:

"As President, Donald J. Trump has headlined an unprecedented 50 rallies — 30 in the last two months alone — and he has campaigned for dozens of candidates at all levels of government. The President has energized a staggering number of Americans at packed arenas and in overflow crowds at rallies across the country. Under President Trump's leadership, the Republican National Committee has raised more than a quarter billion dollars, fueling an extraordinary ground game geared toward defying midterm history and protecting the GOP's majorities. He has made the choice clear to the American people: Tonight, we can continue down the path of American prosperity and security or we can go backwards. The President and First Lady look forward to watching the results come in with friends and family in the White House residence."

6:55 pm – With 2 percent of the vote in from Kentucky’s 6th district, Rep. Andy Barr R-KY leads by 12 votes.

6:50 pm – The pace of the night will really pick up over the next hour. The polls close at 7 pm ET in the Eastern Time Zone counties of Florida, all of Georgia, all of Virginia, and the rest of Indiana and Kentucky. Virginia and Florida will give Democrats their first big opportunity to win some seats in the Congress. We’ll see whether they’re up to the task tonight, or not.

6:40 pm – I don’t know if this will mean anything, but in the Indiana U.S. Senate race, the Republican candidate is getting fewer votes than other Republicans who are running statewide, for Secretary of State, Auditor, Treasurer, and more – while Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is doing better than the Democrats in those races. Also, the Libertarian is getting about 1.5% more in votes for Senate, than the Libertarians in those other statewide races. Just something to think about.

6:35 pm – The formula for success is a familiar one tonight in statewide races for U.S. Senate, as Republicans will see a lot of Red in more rural, Republican-leaning counties, while Democrats will try to run up big margins in the cities, and pick off more GOP voters in suburban areas. In 2016, President Trump was able to motivate enough people to the polls in those less populated areas to offset the Democratic strength in cities. That will be an important measurement tonight as well.

6:25 pm – The counties reporting so far in Indiana are mainly rural, Republican areas, which are giving Braun a healthy lead over Sen. Donnelly. That calculus should change once larger cities start reporting their vote totals, as Democrats should do well in the Indianapolis area, and up in the northwest corner of the state.

6:17 pm – And we get our first batch of votes from Kentucky as well, from the Sixth Congressional district, where Rep. Andy Barr R-KY is trying to hold on against Democrat Amy McGrath. This is not a ‘must-win’ for Democrats, but GOP loss here would not be a good way to start for Republicans. Again, this is very early vote results.

6:15 pm – The first votes have come trickling in from Indiana – it must have been early votes from a GOP enclave, because it gave a health advantage to Republican Mike Braun, who is running against Sen. Joe Donnelly D-IN. One notable thing about this batch of 4,800 votes is that the Libertarian candidate received 5 percent. If that 5 percent happens when Braun is on the losing side in larger counties, that could be a big problem. It’s very early.

6:10 pm – As we wait for the first votes, what counties now often total up first are the early votes, along with any absentee ballots that have already been cast. That’s a big change from many years ago, when the absentees were an afterthought. But now, so many votes are cast early in a number of states, that the first numbers you see are from those early votes. Any absentees or mail-in ballots which arrive later, will be counted at the end of the process, along with provisional ballots.

6:00 pm – The polls are now closed in the Eastern Time Zone portions of Indiana and Kentucky. This means we will start getting actual returns soon on the U.S. Senate race in Indiana, and the Sixth Congressional District in Kentucky. Those are the first two races to pay attention to this evening.

5:45 pm – Republicans were managing expectations a bit today, with the national Republican chair declaring that if Democrats don’t match the Tea Party ‘wave’ election of 2010, then whatever Democrats gain tonight in the House will be small potatoes. Historically, that 63 seat net gain in 2010 by the GOP was the largest since Democrats had won 75 seats in the 1948 elections (that was the infamous “Dewey Beats Truman” election).

5:30 pm – No matter what happens today, there will be a lot of change within the Congress. So far, 58 House members won't be back in January, which is already more than the entire turnover associated with the 2016 election. Only eight House members lost on election night two years ago – it seems like more may get booted out this time around, but you never know what the voters will decide. Read my story about this year's turnover, and check the statistics for what's happened in elections going back to 2006, as there has been double digit percentage change in the House for seven straight elections. That's a lot of new faces. And depending on what happens tonight, there could be many more.