Talking the Tropics w/ Mike: No storm coming to the U.S. *this week*... eye on Antilles & Caribbean

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Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) * here *.

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* There is no named storm aimed at the U.S. this week!

* The SW Atlantic, Greater Antilles & Caribbean will be the next area to monitor for possible tropical development.

* “The Hell that was Helene” - Buresh Blog.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

Milton track & winds:

Remarkable accuracy by the Nat. Hurricane Center with the very first advisory issued Sat., Oct. 5th for Milton’s landfall 4 1/2 days later:

(1) “Leslie” was upgraded a week ago Wed. night & became a hurricane a week ago Fri. evening - the 8th of the Atlantic season & now exceeds the avg. for the entire season of 7 hurricanes. The last NHC advisory was issued Saturday. The 12th named storm develops - on avg. - Oct. 11th.

(2) A tropical wave - ‘L-94′ is moving is moving west & has a well defined circulation but is lacking convection. It looks like this wave will combine with another wave that’s moving off of Africa & this “entity” will be something to track through the upcoming week as the Bermuda High is now strengthening & shifting west allowing for waves to scoot much farther west vs. the past 4 weeks or so. There’s a chance this becomes a tropical storm before reaching the SW Atlantic, Puerto Rico &/or Greater Antilles by Fri./Sat. Land interaction may weaken the system before re-emerging over the Caribbean. The European model is a good deal stronger & slower skirting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola & Cuba before an abrupt turn east late in the weekend/early the following week (Oct. 20-23). The GFS model is weaker & much farther south crossing the Caribbean then moving into Central America in about 10-12 days. The Canadian model is similar in track but weaker. The ‘HorizonAI’ global model - the First Alert Weather Team is one of the few in the world with access to this model & a model that’s pretty solid for Helene & Milton - is weak & close to the path of the European but weaker.

(3) Only the GFS model is indicating (& it’s insistent & strong) tropical development over the Western Caribbean during the upcoming week. There is a whole lot of convection there, so it’s within the realm of possibility. Proximity to land could limit overall development... movement should be west into Central America. Flooding & mudslides - regardless of development - will be a threat for Belize, Honduras, Guatemala & Nicaragua & nearby areas over the next few days.

Climavision ‘HorizonAI’ global model is below & has been a good “steady eddy” & compromise between other models this season. The forecast map below is for early Fri., Oct. 18th, early Sun., Oct. 20, early Tue., Oct. 22 & early Thu., Oct. 24 showing ‘94-L’ moving through the Greater Antilles while quit weak then over the Caribbean & into Central America in 10-12 days. The model does not currently develop the Western Caribbean disturbance that the GFS is “all about”.

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows “sinking” air (brown lines) across the Atlantic Basin. With sinking air, tropical development can occur but overall conditions are not as conducive as when there is overall rising (green lines) air where convection is active. An upward “pulse” over the Atlantic is due again by late month, early Nov.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

October tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Nadine” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:

East & Central Pacific:

Central Pacific:

Hawaii satellite imagery:

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity: