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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.
The strong & well organized tropical wave - 92-L’ was upgraded to tropical depression #3 over the Eastern Atlantic Mon. morning then to tropical storm Bret Mon. afternoon. This (a named storm developing so far to the east in the deep tropical Atlantic) is an unusual development for so early in the season. In fact, it’s the 7th earliest occurrence for the 3rd named Atlantic storm (avg. for the first one is June 20th) & is the farthest east in the tropical Atlantic for a storm to be named so early in the season. Often times in June, such waves don’t have much of a chance to develop let alone make it across the Atlantic given typical early season wind shear & ocean temps. that are usually far off their peak. *But*....
The set-up makes sense given: (1) an early season uptick in tropical waves that have already been marching westward... (2) above avg. & warm ocean temps. over most of the lower Atlantic Basin (has cooled to the north)... & (3) the El Nino is in its infancy & is still strengthening (which may help to slow the season near its climatological peak in Sept./early Oct.).
Conditions are generally favorable over the next couple days for intensification & Bret could become a hurricane while over the open Central Atlantic & upon approach to the Eastern Caribbean. But Bret will encounter some dry air + stronger wind shear, especially upon approach to the East/Northeast Caribbean &/or Puerto Rico by Fri. into the weekend. It’s still too early to determine the movement much beyond late late in the week/ next weekend given what is likely to be a fast degenerating tropical cyclone. At the moment - at least into the weekend - it would appear some troughing will remain over or near the Eastern U.S. The location of this trough could/should prove critical on the ultimate path in the long range as will the intensity of the tropical disturbance. This trough may be too far north to have much impact on Bret but will likely help steer the wave behind Bret more to the north.
Long range global models are in good agreement with Bret up until approach to the Caribbean. The European model continues to be weaker on intensity &, therefore, farther west (steered more by the prevailing easterlies) &, in fact, degrades Bret to an open wave over the Caribbean. The GFS model has been consistently stronger with a fairly sharp turn north by late in the week into the weekend to the east of the Caribbean but close to Puerto Rico.
A second tropical wave is behind - to the east of - Bret. This wave also has the potential for some long range development while moving west or west/northwest across the East then Central Atlantic & probably will become “Cindy”. All indications are that this wave will turn northward far to the east of the U.S. & Caribbean.
Forecast models continue to be inconsistent on low pressure developing over or near the Gulf of Mexico later this week....
The combination of a weak wave over the Southwest Caribbean + an upper level trough extending southward to the Gulf *may* lead to a surface reflection (low pressure system) forming over the Northern Caribbean &/or the Eastern Gulf late this week. While the low is a “conditional” potential development, this will be something to watch as this would be a quick, late “bloomer” close to land areas. Any possible surface low would likely be quite weak The pattern is already wet over Fl. thanks to the nearby upper trough, so any tropical input would only add to the potential for significant flooding. The location of the upper trough will/would ultimately be the primary steering mechanism of the low which looks - right now - to be northward up the east side of the upper trough - IF a low develops.
We’ll monitor the Caribbean & Gulf for any persistent convection that might be the hint of low pressure area trying to form.
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
June tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for June:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2023 names..... “Cindy” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors will expand rather dramatically by Aug./Sept./Oct.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
The East Pacific (may see development by the weekend south of Mexico):
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity: