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Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.
Forecast models continue to be inconsistent on low pressure developing over or near the Gulf of Mexico later this week....
The combination of a weak wave over the Southwest Caribbean + an upper level trough extending southward to the Gulf may lead to a surface reflection (low pressure system) forming over the Northern Caribbean moving northward over the Eastern Gulf late this week. While the low is a “conditional” potential development, this will be something to carefully watch as this could be a quick, late “bloomer”. The pattern is already wet over Fl. thanks to the nearby upper trough, so a tropical system would only add to the potential for significant flooding. The location of the upper trough will/would ultimately be the primary steering mechanism of the low which looks - right now - to be northward up the east side of the upper trough.
Sea surface temps. are plenty warm to help with this early season development over the Caribbean/Gulf, mid & upper level moisture is high & through shear is quite formidable, the upper level trough might be able to actually enhance upper level diffluence (ventilation, so to speak) which could enhance the system. We’ll monitor the Caribbean & Gulf for any persistent convection that might be the notice of a low pressure area trying to form.
The strong & well organized tropical wave - 92-L’ over the Eastern Atlantic that emerged off the coast of Africa early Fri. continue to roll westward. Often times in June, such waves don’t have much of a chance to develop let alone make it across the Atlantic given typical early season wind shear & ocean temps. that are usually far off their peak. *But* this wave may be very different....
The set-up makes sense given: (1) an early season uptick in tropical waves that have already been marching westward... (2) above avg. & warm ocean temps. over most of the lower Atlantic Basin (has cooled to the north)... & (3) the El Nino has just kicked in & is still strengthening (which may help to slow the season near its climatological peak in Sept./early Oct.).
92-L could become a tropical cyclone (tropical storm ‘Bret’) over the next couple days. Conditions are generally favorable for intensification though the wave will encounter some dry air + pockets of stronger wind shear, especially upon approach to the Northeast Caribbean &/or Puerto Rico by the weekend. It’s still too early to determine the movement much beyond late late in the week/ next weekend. At the moment - at least into next weekend - it would appear some troughing will remain over or near the Eastern U.S. The location of this trough could/should prove critical on the ultimate path in the long range as will the intensity of the tropical disturbance.
Long range global models are in good agreement with wave ‘92-L’ up until approach to the Caribbean. The European model has generally been weaker on intensity &, therefore, farther west (steered more by the prevailing easterlies). The GFS model has been consistently stronger with a fairly sharp turn north by late in the week into the weekend far to the east of the Caribbean & U.S. but relatively close to Puerto Rico.
A second tropical wave is behind - to the east of - ‘92-L’. This wave also has the potential for some long range development while moving west or west/northwest across the East then Central Atlantic.
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
June tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for June:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2023 names..... “Bret” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors will expand rather dramatically by Aug./Sept./Oct.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
The East Pacific (may see development by the weekend south of Mexico):
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity: