Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.
*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
** Tammy is over the Central Atlantic...
A tropical wave/low pressure area - ‘94-L’ - was upgraded to tropical storm “Tammy” late Wed. & to a hurricane Fri. morning. Tammy is now moving north/northeast & will be over the SW & Central Atlantic much of the upcoming week. There has been some recent strengthening despite continued moderate wind shear likely due to some help from better overall upper level conditions still over warm water.
The longer term track remains muddled with various solutions amongst the forecast models including a good deal of run to run variability within themselves. There is an increasing probability that Tammy may be left behind by the upper level trough that will move across the N. Atlantic. So Tammy will likely languish over the Central Atlantic well north of the Caribbean for a number of days possibly approaching Bermuda by the weekend after transitioning to a post-tropical ocean storm. A fairly sharp turn to the west is the forecast through Sunday. The European model has been the most adamant on this possibility but shows a very weak system by the weekend. The GFS on the other hand has had a tendency to take Tammy northeast over the open Atlantic but has recently trended - for the most part - more toward the European (more west while weakening).
In any case... other than an easterly swell along the east coast this week augmented by onshore flow & astronomically high tides, there will be no direct impacts to the U.S. through the weekend.
Additional spaghetti plots for Tammy:
The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean:
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
October tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2023 names..... “Vince” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East/Central Pacific:
“Otis” - rapidly intensified from a 50 mph tropical storm Mon. afternoon to a Cat. 5 160 mph hurricane Tue. evening - just a little more than 24 hours! Early indications are that Otis tops the rate of intensification of powerful Patricia over the E. Pacific in 2015. Landfall early Wed. was near Acapulco with winds near 165 mph - Cat. 5 - where Cat. 3+ hurricanes are a rarity.
From late Sunday through early Wed. landfall:
West Pacific:
‘Hamoon”:
“Lola”:
Global tropical activity: