Maria now threatening parts of the Caribbean; Jose east of Jacksonville

Very busy Atlantic Basin continues

Sept. 17, 2017 — LATEST: Hurricane Maria heads for Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico

AFTER IRMA: Florida man, woman arrested for stealing downed power lines

The Atlantic remains very active with "Jose" over the W. Atlantic... "Maria" east of the Caribbean.... & "Lee" over the far E. Atlantic.....

Only 6 other seasons have had 13 named storms by Sept. 16th - 1933, 1936, 1995, 2005, 2011 & 2012 (Klotzbach).

The "Buresh Bottom Line" is: stay tuned!... Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

Maria:

Heads-up Lesser Antilles & Puerto Rico!  "Maria" is likely to develop into a hurricane & possibly a major (Cat. 3+) while moving through the already hard hit Lesser Antilles ("Irma").  This part of the forecast is relatively straight forward (if there is a such a thing!).... but things become more complicated in the long range.  Jose is adding to the confusion as some models show some interaction in 10 days or so over the Western Atlantic though at that long range, there is a lot that can change when it comes to upper level flow & overall steering currents.  Ultimately I don't believe the two tropical cyclones will directly interact but what happens in the atmosphere with & near Jose may dictate Maria's movement by next weekend & beyond.

I am concerned about a more west shift in the long term track overall due to:

(1) upper level ridge that will have the potential to develop underneath (south) of "Jose"

(2) the Atlantic pattern since spring has been dominated by a strong & expansive Bermuda high.  Attention to long range model forecasts this season have shown an east & even north bias early in the forecast cycles.

So far.... the European model is generally the farthest west.... the GFS the farthest east (with recent operational runs showing a miss on the U.S. but earlier runs not so optomistic).... & other global models somewhere in-between.  It'll likely be at least 4-6 days before things are resolved.  It's my humble opinion, that Maria is not a simple recurve harmlessly over the W. Atlantic after battering parts of the Caribbean & Bahamas.

There may also be some interaction with the land mass of Puerto Rico & the very mountainous Hispaniola which could play a role in intensity of the storm & - in some ways - the track of the tropical cyclone.

Jose:

.... was a major hurricane a week ago but has battled shear the better part of the last 5 days or so.  The hurricane is gradually turning more northward & may go through a period of intensification over/near the Gulf stream before leveling out then gradually weakening as westerly shear increases over cooler water.

There will be no major direct impacts on Fl..  Jose" will turn northward far to the east of Florida missing the Southeast U.S. coast but the upper east coast is not necessarily out of the woods yet.  An approaching upper level trough of low pressure will at least try to draw "Jose" a little bit northwest by mid week as the system transitions to an extratropical low while flirting with the coast of New England about Wed.  Very strong winds will affect New England including Boston by midweek while a very high rip current risk will occur from the beaches of of the Carolina's to Maine along with gusty winds.

LOCALLY -  for NE Fl./SE Ga: Jose's closest approach is Sunday BUT 500+ miles to the east.  An easterly swell will continue at the coast of Northeast Fl./SE Ga. into Monday with an enhanced rip current risk.  Onshore northeast winds will develop because of "Jose" to the east & high pressure to the north, but the gradient does not look all that strong so while winds will be gusty at the coast, speeds will quickly decrease inland.  The onshore flow will keep some flood water trapped a little longer along the shores of NE Fl/SE Ga. as well as along the St. Johns River & inland tributataries.

NOAA WaveWatch III below predicated on GFS model - will change & update - hit refresh for latest + loop:

The West Pacific may again give us a clue this season -- this time with "Jose".  Tropical storm "Talim" will move N/NE across Japan just to the east of China.  So the "play" on Jose might be something closer to the coast from the Mid Atlantic to New England.

0

Very warm ocean water persists:

1

Deep oceanic heat content is still very evident - especially over the Caribbean & Gulf.  We will have more tropical troubles before the season is over.

Sea surface temp. anomalies shows a lot of warm water except for the Texas/La coast & the New England coast:

Tropical depression #14 has become "Lee". Strong shear this week should eventually shred the system though conditions become more favorable again over the Central Atlantic in the long range IF "Lee" can survive the short term hostile environment.  No land areas will be impacted any time soon.

The Gulf & Caribbean remain quiet.  There are indications of a general lowering of surface pressures across this area for late month which might be a hint pointing to tropical "mischief".

East Atlantic IR satellite:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS):

SE U.S. surface map - cold front is part of the equation for where Irma goes....

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Hurricane Irma recap: made the turn to the northwest & now north after ravaging the Keys.  Ft. Myers & much of Florida. this is the first "major" Fl. hurricane landfall since Cat. 3 "Wilma" in Oct., 2005 (Twitter did not yet exist!)...

The last advisory by the NHC on "Irma" was issued Tue. morning as the storm has become post tropical.

Preliminarily highest water levels from NOAA.  Further ground verification will follow & result in some higher numbers ultimately (probably) - especially for the Keys & S. Florida.  What pops out is the highest so far is the I-295 Bridge (Buckman)!.... then the southerly wind on the east side of Irma pushed all that water north to downtown resulting in the massive once in a generation flood for Riverside & San Marco.  Initial post storm analysis is showing salinity of the St. Johns River at the peak of the "Great Flood" to not be as great as during the peak of flooding during/immediately after Matthew last year.