May 23, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
An early start to the hurricane season could be in the offing, so it will be an early start to "Talking the Tropics With Mike". May tropical cyclones have occurred 4 times in the last 5 years:
2016 (1 - Bonnie)... 2015 (1 - Ana)... 2012 (2 - Alberto & Beryl).
The list of names repeats every 6 years, & we could have another early "Alberto" this year.
The area to watch is the West & Northwest Caribbean as a poorly organized area of low pressure - mostly still in the upper levels -- tries to develop. The system will drift to the north with a surface low gradually developing over the Central &/or Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
A combination of strong shear out of the west... dry air over the Western Gulf.... & marginal sea surface temps. should all add up to a system that struggles & generally remains weak & heavily weighted on the east side which is typical of early season tropical systems. Shear from the west & southwest will remain significant keeping the heavier rain & gusty winds over the eastern circulation. A possible landfall will be between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle sometime over the weekend.
The screaming message with this system will be heavy rain potential from Jacksonville & especially west along the I-10 corridor all the way to New Orleans. The more west you go from Jacksonville, the stronger the impacts: gusty winds, rough seas/surf, rip currents & heavy rain.
Water vapor imagery shows a lot of dry air over the Western Gulf of Mexico - another obstacle for any strong development as the disturbance moves north over the Gulf....
Spaghetti plots from various forecast models. Some models are not showing a tropical low which is why there's a relatively low number of plots:
Deep oceanic heat content is typically lacking in May & this year is no different:
Sea surface temp. anomalies (a little cool either side of Fl.):
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). Notice the red lines across the gulf indicating strong shear which will likely limit just how strong the Gulf disturbance will become & keep the disturbance's heavy rain & what wind might develop over the eastern part of the low level circulation.
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SE U.S. surface map:
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Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Extensive hurricane Irma recap from Sept., 2017 - click here.