Columbia County under Hurricane Warning, Northeast Florida under Tropical Storm Warning ahead of Helene

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — As Tropical Storm Helene strengthens, Columbia County has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. The rest of Northeast Florida is now under a Tropical Storm Warning, while Southeast Georgia remains under a Tropical Storm Watch.

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Watches and Warnings:

• Tropical Storm Warning: Northeast coast of Florida north of the Flagler/Volusia line to the mouth of St. Mary’s River, and for the Upper Florida Keys.
• Hurricane Warning: Columbia County, Anclote River to Mexico Beach (FL), Cabo Catoche to Tulum (Mexico).
• Tropical Storm Watch: Southeast Georgia (north of St. Mary’s River), South Carolina coast to South Santee River.

Discussion and Outlook:

Helene’s center is forecast to pass near the Yucatan Peninsula this morning and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. It is expected to reach major hurricane status before landfall on the Florida Big Bend coast by late Thursday.

Key Hazards Affecting Land:

• Rainfall: Helene will produce 5 to 10 inches of rain across the Southeastern U.S., with isolated totals up to 15 inches. Significant flash flooding and river flooding are possible.
• Storm Surge: Life-threatening surges are expected along the Florida coast. Water could rise: Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka: 10-15 feet Tampa Bay: 5-8 feet
• Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected within Columbia County by Thursday night.
• Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible in the Florida peninsula and southern Alabama tonight.

Timeline based on the current forecast:

• Wednesday: Increasing clouds and slowly increasing winds becoming breezy at the beaches by the afternoon. A few showers with gusty winds will be possible in the afternoon/evening.
• Wednesday night/Thursday morning: Cloudy and windy, with rain bands lifting from south to north. These will have the potential to produce isolated tornadoes/waterspouts.
• Mid-day Thursday: Still cloudy and windy, but there could be a sizable break in the rain.
• Thursday afternoon/evening: More rain bands pivot in around the storm. These will contain an even greater risk for tornadoes and water spouts, and some tropical storm-force wind gusts.
• Thursday night: Helene makes landfall with the core of the storm pushing hurricane conditions inland to Columbia County (Lake City) and perhaps as far inland as Waycross in gusts. St. Johns River with values perhaps up to 2-3 feet above normal tide levels. High tide Thursday evening downtown is 6:43 PM, and low tide is Friday at 1:02 AM.
• Friday morning: A few wrap-around gusty downpours, but rapidly improving weather by late morning into the afternoon.
• Minor to moderate flooding will be possible Thursday evening and overnight along the St. Johns River, its tributaries, and coastal areas prone to flooding. Some minor storm surge will be possible along the Northeast Florida coast during a period of onshore winds. A slightly higher surge is possible across the Southeast Georgia coastline.
• Overall, manageable impacts across our metro with sporadic tree and power issues. Minimal flooding threat. Greater impact inland closer to the core of the storm. The magnitude of impacts is still track-dependent.

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