First Alert Weather Days: Heavy rain, storms forecast for the Jacksonville area this weekend

The Action News Jax First Alert Weather Team has declared First Alert Weather Days for Saturday and Sunday.

While the focus will be on heavy rain and storms later Saturday into early Sunday, the entire weekend will be windy.

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Here is what Action News Jax First Alert Weather Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh said we can expect:

FRIDAY: Gusty onshore winds out of the east will continue along with mostly light showers at times. This onshore flow is helping to “set the table” for the weekend storm: some beach erosion, high tides & lots of extra (ocean) water being pushed into the aqua system (dunes, Intracoastal, St. Johns River, and tributaries).

SATURDAY: Mild, breezy morning with only a brief passing shower or two. Rain will begin to increase from south to north from mid through late afternoon reaching State Road 16 (St. Johns/Clay/Putnam Co.) between 1 p.m. and 3 p.m.; I-10 corridor (Duval Co.) between 3 p.m. & 6 p.m.; Southeast Georgia from 6 to 9 p.m. Rain intensity and embedded thunderstorms will increase late evening and overnight, along with strong onshore winds out of the east/southeast.

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SUNDAY: Heavy rain and storms early should quickly diminish from southwest to northeast, even some sun for the afternoon along with scattered showers at times. But winds will really crank in the afternoon as the center of the storm moves northeast and intensifies. May see additional power outages and wind damage despite the storm moving away, especially given what is likely to be very saturated ground.

RAIN: Average of 2-4″ across the area (more than the avg. for the entire month of Dec.) with some spots -- likely I-95 to the coast -- as much as half a foot of rain. This alone will cause flooding but will be exasperated by the strong onshore flow and high tide cycles.

WIND: Winds out of the east/southeast at 10-20 mph Saturday morning will increase to 15-30 mph with 40 mph gusts in the afternoon to 30-50 mph with gusts to 60 mph Saturday night, but thunderstorms and intense rainbands could cause wind gusts of 70+ mph. Winds will diminish a bit for a time Sunday morning then fire up again in the afternoon but out of the west/northwest at 20-40 mph with gusts 50+ mph. This will tend to push some of the water back out to the ocean later Sunday. If the storm center tracks more west, there would be a period of stronger south winds Sunday that could push water out of the St. Johns into parts of downtown. The prolonged period of strong winds will likely make any power outage repairs more difficult and longer to remedy.

LISTEN: Mike Buresh ‘All the Weather, All the Time’ Podcast

TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS: Still “conditional” based on exact track of the storm’s center. For right now, it appears the highest tornado threat is east of I-95 in Duval County and south of I-10 increasing across Clay/St. Johns & Putnam County especially near/south of State Road 16.

FLOODING: Areas & pockets of flooding are likely. Flood-prone areas may see significant to major flooding/standing water. Areas that see flooding only during more major storms, may experience significant flooding as well. The beaches & St. Augustine will flood & Sat. night’s high tide & Sunday’s high tide cycles should be especially problematic. There will be high tides & likely at least some flooding along the St. Johns & its tributaries.

High tide along the coast is near 11:30 p.m Saturday night and near noon Sunday. The Saturday night high tide cycle will be most severe. High tide in downtown Jacksonville along St. Johns is closer to 12:30 a.m. Sunday.

JAGS GAME: By kickoff Sun. evening, winds will still be gusty out of the northwest at 15-25 mph. It will be cool as temperatures fall into the 50s, perhaps a brief passing shower. But the core of the storm will be moving away & the major impacts will have ended.

INTERACTIVE RADAR: Keep track of the rain as it moves through your neighborhood

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