First Alert Weather: First Alert Weather Day through Tuesday

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The First Alert Weather Team is tracking Tropical Storm Debby. Debby hit the Florida Big Bend with a landfall about 7 a.m.

NHC: “Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the center of Hurricane Debby has made landfall around 700 AM EDT (1100 UTC) near Steinhatchee, Florida. Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure at landfall was around 979 mb (28.91 in) and the maximum winds were estimated to be around 80 mph (130 km/h).

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Northeast Florida/Southeast Georgia concerns are centered around heavy rain - possibly very heavy, rough seas & surf, a high rip current risk & a few tornadoes/waterspouts. Winds should be gusty & at times strong from Highway 301 to the beaches but will be more significant & potentially damaging west of Jax along I-10 closer to the center. Winds will peak Mon. afternoon into the evening.

Florida is the “fork in the road” for longer range movement, especially the forward speed but also a turn more toward the east while over land.

Squalls of heavy rain & storms will impact Florida, Georgia & the coastal Carolina’s through at least midweek.

A reminder that Jax/NE Fl./SE Ga. will be on the “messy” east side of the storm.

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Realize impacts from Debby will occur many miles from the center & OUTSIDE of the forecast cone.

Forecasts remain in flux & subject to change.

Specifics primarily for NE Fl./SE Ga. given *current* forecast track:

Rainfall: Severe flooding is legitimate concern. Amounts through Wed. will average 6-12″, locally more. As much as 10-15″ ... nearing 2 feet is well within the realm of ‘possibility’ from Lake City to Waycross eastward across SE Ga. as Debby slows. A strong/steady wind from the south Monday may push water from the St. Johns River into parts of downtown Jacksonville & - during times of heavy rain - flooding could become rather serious for a time. The more north & west over N. Fl & SE Ga., the greater the rain amounts.

Wind: sustained winds will average 20-30 mph with gusts 40-50 mph from Highway 301 to the coast though some higher speeds will be possible at/near the beaches due to less friction. Sustained winds may peak Monday at 50-60 mph with gusts 70+ mph from Lake City to Waycross due to the closer proximity to the center. The strongest winds for Duval & metro Jacksonville will be Monday afternoon/early evening as the center of then weakening tropical storm Debby will make its closest approach.

Tornadoes/waterspouts: Isolated threat through Monday then gradually diminishing west to east late Mon. night.

Ocean: Seas will average 7-12 feet off the Ga. & Fl. coast, possibly higher by Tuesday depending on exactly where Debby is & how strong. Surf will build to 6-10+ feet. The onshore wind component will not be long lasting which is a good thing for the beaches.

Rip Currents: A high to very high rip current risk at area beaches. The best advice is to stay out of the ocean.

Storm Surge: Little. The majority of the flooding will be due to rainfall. But some surge will occur along coastal Ga. - possibly as much as 2-4 feet.... 1-2 feet, locally 3 feet for NE Fl., the St. Johns River & its tributaries.

Power Outages: Sporadic for the I-95 corridor but more widespread & significant from Waycross, Ga. to Lake City, Fl., the I-10 corridor & the Fl./Ga. border area.

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Here’s a look at your 7-day forecast:

RIGHT NOW: Windy with heavy rain bands shifting eastward.

THE TROPICS: Another tropical wave will move across the Caribbean this week with at least some potential for longer term development over the NW Caribbean or Central or Western Gulf of Mexico.

TONIGHT: Windy with heavy rain… gradually diminishing over NE Fl… but continuing much of SE Ga. Low: 77

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy & breezy with scattered showers & a few t’storms. High: 85

TUESDAY NIGHT: A few showers & storms, breezy. Low: 75

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy & breezy with scattered showers & t’storms. High: 85

THURSDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers & storms. High: 86

FRIDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers & storms. High: 89

SATURDAY: Partly sunny with scattered afternoon showers & storms. High: 91

SUNDAY: Partly sunny with scattered afternoon showers & t’storms. High: 91

MONDAY: Partly sunny with scattered afternoon showers & storms. High: 90

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