First Alert Weather: Helene strengthens into hurricane, heavy rains, tornado risk NE Florida/SE Georgia

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — 10:58 a.m. Update: Helene has now become a hurricane. It is expected to bring life-threatening storm surges, damaging winds, and flooding rains to a large portion of Florida and the southeastern United States.

As Hurricane Helene approaches, the Jacksonville area and much of Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia are under growing threats of heavy rain, tornadoes, waterspouts, gusty winds, and dangerous rip currents.

These conditions will intensify Wednesday night through Friday, as Helene is expected to make landfall at least a couple hundred miles west of Jacksonville, near Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 3+ hurricane.

Watches and Warnings:

• Tropical Storm Warning: Northeast coast of Florida north of the Flagler/Volusia line to the mouth of St. Mary’s River, and for the Upper Florida Keys.
• Hurricane Warning: Columbia County, Anclote River to Mexico Beach (FL), Cabo Catoche to Tulum (Mexico).
• Tropical Storm Watch: Southeast Georgia (north of St. Mary’s River), South Carolina coast to South Santee River.

Key Impacts:

• Rain: 3-5+ inches from Lake City, FL to Waycross, GA; 2-4 inches east of I-75 to Highway 301; 1-2 (3″) inches from Highway 301 to the coast, including most of Jacksonville.
• Winds:
• Near I-75: 50-70 mph sustained winds, with gusts up to 80 mph.
• Highway 301 area: 40-50 mph sustained winds, gusts up to 65 mph.
• I-95 corridor and coast: 25-35 mph sustained, gusts up to 65 mph along the beaches and Intracoastal Waterway.
• Storm Surge: 1-3 feet expected for Southeast Duval and St. Johns Counties, with higher surges of up to 4 feet possible in downtown Jacksonville along the St. Johns River.
• Tornadoes/Waterspouts: Likely Wednesday night through Thursday night, with potential for stronger, longer-track tornadoes.
• Rip Currents: Increased risk at area beaches.

Timeline of Impacts:

• Florida: Peak impacts Thursday into Thursday night.
• Georgia and Carolinas: Conditions worsen by Friday, with inland wind damage expected.

Residents from Mississippi to Florida need to monitor the latest forecasts, with those in the Florida Panhandle and west coast urged to complete hurricane preparations by Thursday morning. Stay informed, as track and intensity may still change.

Discussion and Outlook:

Helene’s center is forecast to pass near the Yucatan Peninsula this morning and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. It is expected to reach major hurricane status before landfall on the Florida Big Bend coast by late Thursday.

Timeline based on the current forecast:

• Wednesday: Increasing clouds and slowly increasing winds becoming breezy at the beaches by the afternoon. A few showers with gusty winds will be possible in the afternoon/evening.
• Wednesday night/Thursday morning: Cloudy and windy, with rain bands lifting from south to north. These will have the potential to produce isolated tornadoes/waterspouts.
• Mid-day Thursday: Still cloudy and windy, but there could be a sizable break in the rain.
• Thursday afternoon/evening: More rain bands pivot in around the storm. These will contain an even greater risk for tornadoes and water spouts, and some tropical storm-force wind gusts.
• Thursday night: Helene makes landfall with the core of the storm pushing hurricane conditions inland to Columbia County (Lake City) and perhaps as far inland as Waycross in gusts. St. Johns River with values perhaps up to 2-3 feet above normal tide levels. High tide Thursday evening downtown is 6:43 PM, and low tide is Friday at 1:02 AM.
• Friday morning: A few wrap-around gusty downpours, but rapidly improving weather by late morning into the afternoon.
• Minor to moderate flooding will be possible Thursday evening and overnight along the St. Johns River, its tributaries, and coastal areas prone to flooding. Some minor storm surges will be possible along the Northeast Florida coast during a period of onshore winds. A slightly higher surge is possible across the Southeast Georgia coastline.
• Overall, manageable impacts across our metro with sporadic tree and power issues. Minimal flooding threat. Greater impact inland closer to the core of the storm. The magnitude of impacts is still track-dependent.

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