First Alert Weather Team tracking potentially significant weekend storm system for Jacksonville area

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The First Alert Weather Team is tracking some rain and breezy conditions Thursday ahead of what’s forecast to be a stormy weekend for Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia.

Here’s what Action News Jax First Alert Weather Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh said we can expect:

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• Strong onshore flow out of the east is already underway and will cause rough seas and surf through Friday. There will be some beach erosion with winds averaging 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Surf will build to 8-10+ feet through the weekend. A very high rip current risk.
• Some minor to moderate flooding at times of high tide. All of these beach impacts increase over the weekend with the potential for heavy to severe beach erosion, surf of 10-15 feet and offshore seas of 20+ feet, depending on the exact location and intensity of the developing storm.

• Rain will be scattered and mostly light through Friday, though a few heavier bands will occur at times Thursday/Friday, favoring St. Johns, Putnam, Clay, and Duval counties.
• Inland weather through Friday will be more benign, but still breezy with a few showers at times.

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• The weekend is when we’ll feel and see the most adverse impacts from the developing storm. The exact impacts and their intensity will be dictated by the movement, location, and strength of the storm, which will be initially over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico moving northeast.
• Saturday will begin cloudy and windy, with rain and storms spreading northward through the afternoon and night. Winds will start to “crank” out of the east/southeast.
• Rain will be heavy at times late Saturday through at least Sunday morning with 100% coverage and amounts ranging from 1-3″ well inland west of Highway 301, 2-5″ for the Interstate 95 corridor, 3-6″+ for the coast and Intracoastal. This is on top of unusually saturated soil for this time of year. I would expect both freshwater flooding and ocean surf flooding. If heavy rain coincides with high tide, flooding will be even greater.
• There is at least some risk for severe storms including high winds and isolated tornadoes/waterspouts, depending on the exact track of the low-pressure area. Seems to certainly be a threat for Central and South Florida.
• The heaviest rain and severe weather threat should diminish from west to east Sunday afternoon, leaving behind gusty winds and scattered lighter showers Sunday night into early Monday.

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