JACKSOVNILLE, Fla. — Iowa Republicans will weigh in on who they hope to see become their party’s nominee for President Monday night, officially kicking off the 2024 Presidential Election and the stakes couldn’t be higher for one candidate in particular.
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Governor Ron DeSantis’ campaign put it all on winning Iowa, or more realistically, coming in second to former President Donal Trump.
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Up until the turn of the new year, it seemed like he had a tight grip on that silver medal, but in recent days he’s slipped into 3rd, with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley passing him in the polls.
The Iowa Caucuses are all about building momentum, something DeSantis is in desperate need of at the moment.
“His money has dried up, his support from big donors has dried up,” UNF political science professor Dr. Michael Binder said.
With polls showing DeSantis slipping into third both nationally and in the Hawkeye State, Binder argued failing to perform Monday could be the final nail in the coffin for his Presidential aspirations.
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Binder noted with Haley maintaining a solid second place to Trump in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, DeSantis’ path ahead looks bleak for DeSantis if he can’t manage a strong showing in Iowa.
“If DeSantis does poorly, maybe he comes in a distant third, it’s entirely possible that he drops out of this race before New Hampshire even starts. So, yeah that’s meaningful for Floridians for a variety of different reasons and the race to the White House, really, it’s a game of survival. Think about it like a marathon. You don’t win it in the first mile, but if you sprain your ankle when you’re running and you drop out, you’re out,” Binder said.
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With Iowa polls showing former President Trump leading by more than 30 points over both Haley and DeSantis coming into the caucus, Binder predicted short of a political miracle, second place is likely the best anyone else can hope for this evening.
“If DeSantis were to win the Iowa Caucuses, it would be an electoral shock. It would be David Copperfield-esq, pulling a rabbit out of a hat. This would be the most extreme upset in American politics in an exceptionally long time,” Binder said.
After Iowa, the next stop for candidates will be New Hampshire.
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The primary is slated for next Tuesday.
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There, Haley is second to Trump, but by a much smaller margin, down by roughly 14 points.
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