New UNF poll: Trump and Scott up in Florida, strong support for progressive ballot measures

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A new UNF poll shows former President Donald Trump and US Senator Rick Scott with solid leads over their likely-Democratic opponents in the Sunshine State.

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Trump holds a seven-point lead over likely-Democratic Nominee Kamala Harris in Florida, while Scott is up four on his expected Democratic opponent Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

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“I will say it’s more likely that Mucarsel-Powell can win that race than Harris can win that race,” said UNF political science professor Dr. Michael Binder.

Binder noted while Republican candidates may be leading in Florida, the poll found progressive policies on the ballot also have strong support.

69 percent of Florida voters polled said they plan to vote yes for expanded access to abortion and 64 percent supported legalizing recreational marijuana.

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Meanwhile, the Republican legislature-backed measure to make school board races partisan was under water with just 37 percent support.

Binder noted the strong support for the abortion amendment could work to Democrats’ advantage, but there’s a lot of ground to make up.

“Right now, we’re plus-four registration for Republicans and Republicans always turnout a little bit better than Democrats here in Florida. So, Democrats really have to turn Republicans to vote for Democrats or somehow someway get them not to show up,” said Binder.

Additionally, even with support for the abortion and marijuana amendments well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage, Binder pointed out opposition campaigns haven’t gotten off the ground yet.

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He predicted the new poll results are likely the high-water marks for the measures.

“I think abortion, even though it’s polling really well now, that is nowhere near a gimme and I’d probably put it more likely not to pass than to pass,” said Binder.

Additionally, Binder argued a controversial financial impact statement slated to appear on the ballot with the abortion amendment could convince some voters to vote no.

That statement is currently being challenged before the Florida Supreme Court.

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