JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Three days into early voting Republicans are outvoting Democrats in Duval County, and that has the GOP predicting a red wave this election cycle.
If one were to manifest, it would be a major shift in the political direction of the county.
The last time Duval County voted for a Republican at the top of the ticket was in 2016 when Donald Trump pulled a roughly 6,000-vote advantage.
That flipped in 2018 when Democrat Andrew Gillum won the county by 17,000.
Democrats increased their lead in 2020.
That year Joe Biden scored a nearly 20,000-vote win.
This year, however, Republicans currently lead Democrats by just shy of 700 votes cast in Duval.
University of North Florida political science professor Dr. Michael Binder attributed the momentum to Republicans having a potential 2024 presidential contender at the top of the ticket.
A poll released by the university Wednesday showed Gov. Ron DeSantis with a 14-point lead.
“On the flip side, Charlie Crist, a former Republican, has not had enough money to be active on TV the last couple of months, hasn’t really energized the Democratic base,” said Binder.
The cash advantage for Republicans is also reflected in party contributions.
The Republican Party of Duval has outraised the Democratic Party by nearly sixfold this election cycle.
Dean Black, chair of the Republican Party of Duval County, said the fundraising success reflects the work the party has put in since the 2018 loss.
“Began building infrastructure, really got serious about fundraising, really began building a voter turnout machine and you’re seeing the fruits of that right now,” said Black.
But Daniel Henry, chair of the Duval County Democratic Party, warned not to jump to any conclusions this early in the race.
“Democrats traditionally vote on weekends, vote closer to the end of when Election Day is about to occur. So, this is a pattern that we’re consistently seeing,” said Henry.
Still to be seen is whether Democrats will be able to build a lead significant enough to offset Election Day votes, where Republicans traditionally hold the advantage.
[SIGN UP: Action News Jax Daily Headlines Newsletter]
Click here to download the free Action News Jax news and weather apps, click here to download the Action News Jax Now app for your smart TV and click here to stream Action News Jax live.
