Some models show tropical wave could slowly develop off coast of Africa over next week

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Action News Jax First Alert Weather Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh said we may need to watch portions of the Gulf and/or the Caribbean next week and beyond.

Buresh said it’s in response to a “baggy” trough of low pressure that may be over the region left from a rather strong trough moving into the Gulf coast region this week into the weekend.

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In addition, Buresh said several long-range global forecast models are latching on to a tropical wave crossing the Atlantic next week into the following weekend & are trying to develop a tropical cyclone.

The timing & intensity range widely, which is not surprising this far in advance. But the possibility does make sense given:

1. An early season uptick in tropical waves.
2. Above average and warm ocean temperatures over most of the lower Atlantic Basin (has cooled to the north).
3. The El Nino has just kicked in and is still strengthening (which may help to slow the season near its climatological peak in September/early October).

Check out the latest “Talking the Tropics With Mike” entry for a full analysis.

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