Subtropical Storm Alberto likely to be upgraded to tropical storm

We're tracking the impact this system will have on your Memorial Day weekend.

The First Alert Weather Team continues to monitor Subtropical Storm Alberto, which is currently over the Gulf of Mexico.

Here are the latest stats on Alberto as of the 11 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center:

Sustained winds 40 mph
Moving North/Northeast at 13 mph
Northward/Northeastward motion expected today
Gulf Coast landfall Monday night/Tuesday morning has shifted eastward to Pensacola
Eastward shift not enough to change local forecast

The storm is being called -- and appears on satellite imagery to be -- subtropical, which means the storm does not yet have a full warm core.

What is a subtropical storm?

Alberto is likely to be upgraded to a tropical storm within the next 24 hours as winds increase and as the storm becomes more dependent on warm water below it.

The most probable "landfall" is from the Florida Panhandle to New Orleans -- centered on the area from Biloxi to Mobile to Apalachicola -- Monday or Monday night, lingering across the deep south next week.

TALKING THE TROPICS WITH MIKE: Alberto over the SE Gulf ... heavy rain & gusty winds for Jacksonville & much of Florida.

#firstalertwx "Talking the Tropics With Mike": Alberto makes turn northward... tropical storm WARNING for Dry Tortugas... tropical storm WATCH expanded for Fl. Panhandle & portion of Fl. west coast: https://t.co/yb0jyAplZ8 @WOKVNews pic.twitter.com/FadKLBwCuQ
— Mike Buresh (@MikeFirstAlert) May 26, 2018

Alberto's local impacts

First Alert Meteorologist Garrett Bedenbaugh said the storm's impact for Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia haven't changed.

The local area will receive periods of heavy rain Sunday and Memorial Day along with an elevated risk of rip currents at local beaches due to broad southeasterly flow. There is also a possibility of localized flooding.

The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center released a five-day rainfall forecast (pictured below).

Subtropical Storm #Alberto: 2PM update has the storm's sustained winds at 40 mph and it is moving north at 13 mph: https://t.co/OZdRKojzhb pic.twitter.com/BWqxY1DW2U
— ActionNewsJax (@ActionNewsJax) May 26, 2018