Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane threat increasing for the northeast Gulf Coast later this week, local impacts likely

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The First Alert Weather Team says a tropical cyclone will soon form in the western Caribbean Sea. Hurricane hunters are investigating the region of storms this afternoon.

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Forecasts currently develop this into a strong hurricane on approach to the northeast Gulf Coast by Thursday. Conditions are quite favorable for strengthening.

At this point in time, the favored area for a potential landfall would be in between Apalachicola and Cedar Key late Thursday. Shifts are possible and impacts will occur far from the landfall point, especially east of it.

A track closer to, or even east of, Cedar Key would heighten our local impacts. A track closer to Apalachicola would lessen them quite dramatically.

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Based on the current forecast:

• Late Wednesday: We can expect rain bands to lift across our area in the late afternoon through the night. They’ll contain quick-hitting heavy rain, gusty winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes/waterspouts.
• Into Thursday: Rain and wind impacts would increase the farther west one goes, currently expected to be most significant between Lake City and Waycross. Hurricane conditions will be possible there, with intermittent tropical storm conditions possible elsewhere. Saturated grounds from early September rain may make older trees more susceptible to falling.
• Very hazardous beach conditions are expected, with high surf, rip currents, and likely some beach erosion, especially during the higher-than-normal king tides.
• Into Friday mid-day Friday: Conditions area-wide should quickly improve as the storm pulls inland, perhaps causing significant damage as far north as Atlanta.
• It’s still a little too soon to discuss exact rain totals, wind speeds, and surge values, but confidence on a path and impacts will increase over the next 24 hours.

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