Tracking the Tropics: Tornado Watch issued for all of North Florida due to Debby

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The First Alert Weather Team is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Debby, which is forecasted to become a hurricane by early Monday. The probability of a tropical system near Florida is very high late Sunday night and into early next week.

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Concerns for Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia include heavy rain, moderately rough seas and surf, a high rip current risk, and isolated tornadoes/waterspouts. Winds are expected to be gusty but not severe. Florida is pivotal in determining Debby’s direction and speed, with the potential for rapid strengthening upon approach to landfall.

Heavy rain and thunderstorm squalls will impact Hispaniola, nearby islands, Central and Southern Bahamas, as well as Jamaica and Cuba into Sunday, with most of Florida affected later Sunday into early next week.

Locally, Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia will be on the “messy” east side of the storm, with impacts occurring many miles from the center and outside the forecast cone. Expect heavy rain, a flooding threat, and isolated tornadoes/waterspouts late Sunday into Monday and Tuesday.

As of 2:00 PM:

As rain bands from Tropical Storm Debby move north, they could produce tornadoes and waterspouts. A Tornado Watch has been issued for all of northern Florida until 8:00 p.m. today. Stay informed about the weather, and be prepared to take quick action if a warning is issued.

• Storm Surge WATCH: Coastal southeast Georgia, with possible inundation of 2-4 feet above ground level.
• Flash Flood WATCH: Area-wide except for St. Johns, eastern Clay, and eastern Putnam counties.
• Tropical Storm WATCH: Camden, Glynn, Pierce, Brantley, Ware, Charlton, Baker, Columbia, Union, and Bradford counties.
• Tropical Storm WARNING: Far western Columbia County.

Specifics primarily for NE Fl./SE Ga. given the current forecast track:

• Rainfall: Severe flooding is a legitimate concern. Amounts through Wednesday will average 6-12 inches, locally more. As much as 10-15 inches, and potentially nearing 2 feet, is well within the realm of possibility from Lake City to Waycross eastward across SE Georgia as Debby slows and possibly even stalls. A strong/steady wind from the south on Monday may push water from the St. Johns River into parts of downtown Jacksonville. The more north and west over North Florida and Southeast Georgia, the heavier the rain.
• Wind: Sustained winds will average 20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph from Highway 301 to the coast, though some higher speeds will be possible at/near the beaches due to less friction. Sustained winds may peak Monday at 50-60 mph with gusts 70+ mph from Lake City to Waycross due to the closer proximity to the center.
• Tornadoes/Waterspouts: Isolated threat Sunday afternoon increasing later Sunday night through Monday/Monday night.
• Ocean: Seas will average 7-12 feet off the Georgia and Florida coast, possibly higher by Tuesday depending on exactly where Debby is and how strong. Surf will build to 6-10+ feet. The onshore wind component will not be long-lasting, which is a good thing for the beaches.
• Rip Currents: A high to very high rip current risk at area beaches. The best advice is to stay out of the ocean.
• Storm Surge: Little. The majority of the flooding will be due to rainfall.
• Power Outages: Sporadic for the I-95 corridor but more widespread and significant from Waycross, GA to Lake City, FL.

Timeline:

• Today: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms, bringing heavy rain and strong winds, with potential for brief tornadoes/waterspouts.
• Tonight: Increasing rain, especially southwest of Jacksonville, with cloudy and breezy conditions.
• Monday Morning: Widespread heavy rain and gusty winds.
• Monday Mid-day: Heavy rain and stronger winds across Southeast Georgia, scattered heavy rain, and gusty winds for Northeast Florida.
• Monday Afternoon/Evening: Continued heavy rain and gusty winds.
• Monday Night/Tuesday Morning: Scattered heavy rain and gusty winds across Southeast Georgia and coastal Northeast Florida.
• Beyond Tuesday Morning: Uncertainty increases significantly depending on Debby’s speed and track, potentially affecting the region further into Tuesday.

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Realize impacts from Debby will occur many miles from the center & OUTSIDE of the forecast cone.

Forecasts are still in flux and subject to change.

Locally, you can expect heavy rain and a flooding threat, isolated tornadoes/waterspouts late Sunday-Monday and into Tuesday.

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