Tropical Storm Helene forms in Western Caribbean, forecast to become major Hurricane near Florida’s Big Bend

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Helene becomes the 8th named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, with forecasts indicating it will reach “major” category 3 status over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. It is expected to make landfall along the Big Bend of Florida Thursday night.

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge and the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge.

Timing and Impacts:

• Wednesday Night: Expect rain bands with heavy rain, gusty winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes/waterspouts starting late afternoon and continuing through the night.
• Thursday: Significant rain and wind impacts, especially west of Lake City and Waycross, with hurricane conditions possible. Intermittent tropical storm conditions are likely in other areas. Older trees may fall due to saturated grounds.
• Beach & Coastal Impacts: High surf, rip currents, and beach erosion are expected, particularly during king tides. Minor to moderate flooding is likely along the St. Johns River, its tributaries, and other coastal areas prone to flooding Thursday evening into Friday morning.
• Friday: Conditions will improve mid-day as the storm moves inland, though it may still cause damage as far north as Atlanta.

READ: JEA monitoring tropical disturbance, urges customers to prepare for possible Hurricane Helene

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

• Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
• Tampa Bay
• Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

• Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
• Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
• Englewood to Indian Pass
• Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

• Dry Tortugas
• Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
• Grand Cayman
• Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
• Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

• Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
• Flamingo to the south of Englewood
• West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with isolated totals of around 12 inches. The southeastern U.S. could see similar rainfall amounts, leading to flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge combined with high tides could cause flooding in normally dry areas near the coast. Peak surge heights are forecasted to reach:

• Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
• Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
• Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
• Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
• Tampa Bay...5-8 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected in the warning areas today.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, spreading northward towards the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast, leading to dangerous surf and rip current conditions.

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Here’s a look at your First Alert 7-Day Forecast:

• TODAY: Mostly sunny. High: 91°F
• TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low: 72°F
• WEDNESDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy. Showers late. 72/88°F
• THURSDAY (First Alert Weather Day): Cloudy, humid with rain and wind. Isolated tornadoes are possible. 75/85°F
• FRIDAY: Storm moving north. Decreasing clouds with showers/storms. 75/88°F
• SATURDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers/storms. 75/89°F
• SUNDAY: Partly sunny with a few showers/storms. 75/86°F
• MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy with showers/storms. 73/86°F

Stay tuned for further updates as the system evolves. Full forecast updates will be provided at 5 PM, and 11 PM, with intermediate position updates every three hours.

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