JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A recent poll by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) shows Republican incumbent Aaron Bean holding a seven-point lead over Democratic challenger LaShonda “L.J.” Holloway in the race for U.S. Representative in Florida’s 4th Congressional District. The survey of 337 likely voters found that 48% support Bean, while 41% favor Holloway. An additional 12% remain undecided with Election Day approaching. Respondents who declined to answer were excluded from the analysis.
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Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of PORL, noted that while Bean maintains a lead, the margin is significantly narrower than his 21-point victory in the 2022 midterms.
“Aaron Bean won by a whopping 21 points in the 2022 midterm election, the first election in the newly redrawn CD4 after Florida’s hotly contested redistricting,” Binder said. “Turnout among Democrats in 2022 was less than 50% statewide. This time, not only is it a presidential election year, but there’s also a competitive Senate race to drive up Democratic turnout. It’s still looking like another Bean victory in CD4, but perhaps not by as wide a margin as two years ago,” he added.
Poll Methodology
The UNF PORL poll surveyed a random sample of 337 likely voters from October 18 to October 19, with respondents contacted by live interviewers via landline and cell phones. Eligible voters were identified based on their participation in recent primary and general elections, including the 2024 primaries. The sample was weighted for key demographic and geographic factors and voter turnout probability to ensure it reflected the population of likely voters in the 4th District. The margin of error is +/- 5.84 percentage points.
PORL, a non-partisan center at UNF, was established in 2001 and is recognized for its transparency and adherence to ethical research standards. The lab supports political, economic, and cultural research projects to deliver objective insights into public opinion.
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