UNF Poll: Trump has 7-point lead on Harris in home state of Florida

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A new poll of likely Florida voters from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows Donald Trump ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by 7 percentage points.

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A sample of 774 respondents, who said they were either definitely or probably voting in the upcoming election, were asked about their 2024 vote choice for President, U.S. Senate, and 3 proposed amendments to the Florida Constitution.

When asked who they would vote for if the Presidential election were held today, 49% of respondents said former President Donald Trump, with 42% indicating a vote for Vice President Kamala Harris and 4% saying they would vote for another candidate. Six percent were either undecided or refused to answer.

“It’s not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by 3 points in 2020,” said PORL faculty director and professor of political science Dr. Michael Binder. “With Harris just entering the race, enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida.”

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Respondents were also asked who they would vote for if the election for U.S. Senator from Florida were held today, to which 47% indicated Republican incumbent Rick Scott and 43% expressed support for Democrat Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Less than 1% said they would vote for someone else, and 10% said they didn’t know or refused to answer.

“What’s really interesting is that Trump has a couple of points bigger lead than Rick Scott, who’s only up by 4 – just inside the margin of error of this poll,” commented Binder, “Scott has a history of winning razor-thin statewide races in Florida, and in a state that has become significantly redder in the past 6 years, this could be another close race for Scott.”

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In addition to federal offices, respondents were also asked how they would vote on 3 of the 6 proposed constitutional amendments on the 2024 ballot.

When asked about Amendment 1, titled “Partisan Election of Members of District School Boards,” 40% said they would vote “no,” 37% said “yes” and 23% either did not know or refused to answer.

“The language in this ballot measure has some confusing ‘legalese,’ which is likely adding to the uncertainty among voters,” Binder said. “Nonetheless, this amendment from the state legislature looks doomed to fail.”

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Amendment 3, “Adult Personal Use of Marijuana,” received much greater support with 64% indicating a vote of “yes,” and 31% who said they would vote “no.” Respondents were also a bit more decisive, with just 5% undecided or refusing. This is largely consistent with UNF’s Fall of 2023 poll when 67% of registered voters said they would vote in favor of the amendment.

“It’s not too clear yet how much money will be injected into the campaign against this amendment,” noted Binder. “If the opposing organizations ramp up their campaigns, we may see this number come down depending on how much cash is spent in opposition.”

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Amendment 4, “Amendment to Limit Government Interference with Abortion,” had the greatest support of the 3, with 69% indicating a vote of “yes” and just 23% who said “no.” Eight percent said they did not know or refused to answer. This is somewhat more support than it received from registered voters last Fall when 62% said they would vote “yes” and 29% said “no.”

“Again, we have yet to see campaigns on either side of this really get moving,” said Binder. “Factor in the highly contested and contentious financial impact statement recently added to the ballot summary, and I would expect to see support for this amendment drop before November.”

CLICK HERE to read more about the poll and its methodology.

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