Baltimore Orioles 2024 offseason preview: How do the O's continue their ascension in 2025?

2024 season: 91-71, 2nd in AL East

Let’s take a look at the season that was for the 2024 Baltimore Orioles, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for 2025.

Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What's next for the Twins, Mariners, Cubs and more?

Postseason outcome

The Orioles were swept out of the postseason for the second year in a row. In their wild-card loss to the Royals, the O's scored one run in 18 innings, as the offense wasted a gem from Corbin Burnes in Game 1 and failed to deliver in the key moments of Game 2. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and the team's other young stars will have a lot to think about over the winter.

Things that went right

After making major improvements in 2023, the Orioles cemented their status as one of baseball’s best teams by contending for the AL East title until the final week of the season and playing in the postseason for a second straight year.

Offensively, the team finished fourth in runs scored, thanks to the leadership of Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander. Henderson made a major leap in his second full major-league season and finished the campaign 11th in MLB in OPS, sixth in runs scored and ninth in home runs. Meanwhile, Santander placed third in baseball with 44 homers.

There were fewer success stories on the pitching staff, but Corbin Burnes was one man who delivered on high expectations after he was acquired via trade in the offseason. Despite experiencing a notable drop in his strikeout rate, Burnes went 15-9 and ranked seventh in baseball in ERA. Perhaps most importantly, he was a workhorse who threw 194 1/3 innings and led the rotation all season.

Things that went wrong

Although this is still a franchise on the rise, it’s impossible to ignore the factors that led to the Orioles winning 10 fewer games this season than they did in 2023.

Overall, the pitching staff was mediocre. Beyond Burnes, no hurler threw 135 innings, and no one who made at least 10 starts produced a sub-3.70 ERA. While the starters were at least acceptable, the bullpen was another story. Closer Craig Kimbrel was mostly effective in the first half of the season (2.80 ERA, 23 saves, 6 wins) before falling apart after the All-Star break; he was designated for assignment in September. The setup crew, led by Yennier Cano and Cionel Pérez, was respectable, and Seranthony Domínguez tried his best to fill the ninth-inning role after arriving at the trade deadline, but the bullpen finished 23rd in baseball in ERA.

In terms of position players, Adley Rutschman might have been the biggest disappointment. It’s hard to complain about a workhorse at baseball’s most demanding position, but Rutschman fell off dramatically after a solid start, logging a .585 OPS in the second half. Overall, his year-over-year OPS dropped by 100 points.

Beyond Rutschman, the biggest offensive disappointment was the collective failure of the team’s top prospects to help the club in the second half of the season. In April, the offensive talent on Baltimore’s Triple-A team, the Norfolk Tides, was the talk of baseball. But as the Orioles watched the Yankees surge ahead of them to win the division title, they received only minimal contributions from the likes of Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad.

Offseason plans

This is a pivotal offseason for the Orioles, who could quickly shift from ascending to spinning their wheels if they fail to make the right moves.

The infield is mostly set. Rutschman should bounce back offensively and is incredibly valuable either way. Ryan Mountcastle has failed to make improvements in recent years but has likely done enough to remain the first baseman. Even though Holliday struggled this year, he was such a terrific prospect that he will open 2025 as the Orioles’ second baseman. That leaves Henderson at shortstop and the versatile Jordan Westburg at the hot corner. Ramón Urías and Jorge Mateo are capable reserve infielders.

The outfield has two certainties and one notable vacancy. Cedric Mullins is under contract for one more year and will patrol center field, with Colton Cowser coming off a solid rookie season as the left fielder. Santander is heading to free agency, and losing him would be a massive blow to the lineup. If that happens, the team could pivot to Kjerstad or bring in a replacement from outside the organization. The Orioles will also have a tough call on the $7.5 million option for Ryan O'Hearn, who is a useful offensive player and can float among DH, first base and the outfield.

With Burnes heading to free agency, there is a massive hole in the rotation. That said, Grayson Rodriguez has emerged as an effective starter and could develop into an ace. He will be joined by Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer. Cade Povich didn't have much success as a rookie but is young (24) and talented. He could be the fifth starter. Still, there is a major need to either re-sign Burnes or replace him with a similarly talented pitcher.

As for the bullpen, the key relievers are under contract for 2025, and major help is coming in the form of Félix Bautista, who is returning from 2023 Tommy John surgery. The presence of Bautista will shift Domínguez to the setup committee with Cano and Pérez.

Overall, ownership will need to commit more money for this roster to take the next step. Baltimore has maintained a below-average payroll for several years, which made sense for a rebuilding team that wasn't ready to sign expensive free agents. Now the situation has changed, and it's time for club owner David Rubenstein, who has full control of the organization, to add some key veterans, especially while some of the talented youngsters are on affordable contracts. Whether the O's keep Santander and Burnes or look elsewhere, getting a No. 3 hitter and an ace must be part of the offseason plan.

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Prospects on the horizon

With many players having graduated to the majors, the days of Baltimore ranking at the top of prospect lists are over. Still, this organization has a fine group of youngsters that includes some who could help the team next year.

Mayo didn’t quite succeed in his initial major-league trial, but he’s still regarded as one of baseball’s best prospects. The third baseman posted a .926 OPS in Triple-A this year, which is where he will likely open 2025, thanks to his path being blocked by Westburg and Holliday. Still, Mayo could find his way to the Orioles as a first baseman if Mountcastle moves to DH or the outfield.

Samuel Basallo could also soon be a factor at first base, given that his path to being a No. 1 catcher is blocked by Rutschman. The 20-year-old could also be an attractive trade chip in a deal to land a pitcher this winter, as he would have tremendous value to a team looking for a young catcher.

Dylan Beavers is next in a long line of Baltimore outfield prospects, and he could use his plus speed to bring a different component to the lineup in the second half of 2025. Beavers is attractive by virtue of being able to play all three outfield positions.

Finally, Chayce McDermott might have more immediate value to the team than anyone else on this list, as he’s the only top prospect who might soon contribute to the rotation. The right-hander spent all of 2024 at Triple-A, where he continued to show exceptional swing-and-miss skills. Lowering his walk rate will be the key to his taking the next step.

Goals for 2025

A year ago, the Orioles seemed destined to win many AL East championships. They still have a chance to make that happen, but they have their work cut out for them. The Yankees are always a formidable foe, which will be especially true if they re-sign Juan Soto. Boston is ascending, the Rays are about to get a handful of talented starting pitchers back from long-term injuries, and the Blue Jays intend to remain competitive next year.

Baltimore should easily qualify for the postseason again in 2025, but the Orioles’ goals are much larger than that. This is a franchise that has entered a phase of World Series contention and needs to make its chances count.

Fantasy focus

With Burnes and Santander possibly on their way out, Henderson is the only returning player who will be an early draft pick. The shortstop will be selected in the first round of every draft, and Rutschman will have his name announced in the range of Rounds 5-8, depending on the league format. Rodriguez will be selected in a similar range, as he’ll be valued as a No. 2 starter. And as long as he looks good in spring training, Bautista will be one of the more popular closer options. The next tier of Orioles — a group that includes Westburg, Cowser, Holliday and Eflin — will go in the range of Round 10.