New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Just 8% of Americans say Taylor Swift's endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Kamala Harris

Only 8% of Americans say Taylor Swift's recent endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris makes them more likely to vote for Harris in November, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.

But the poll also shows how Swift’s endorsement could help the Democratic nominee turn out at least one key group of voters: unregistered Americans who like Harris more than her Republican rival, former President Donald Trump.

'Swift effect' likely to be small

The survey of 1,755 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Sept. 11 to 13, suggests that Swift’s overall impact on the 2024 election will probably be minimal.

For starters, taking sides in this year's presidential contest seems to have dented the singer's popularity more than her previous forays into politics. In early August, a full 58% of U.S. citizens had a favorable opinion of Swift, according to another YouGov poll; just 28% saw her unfavorably. That's a 30-point gap.

But now, in the wake of the Harris endorsement, the gap has shrunk to just 11 points, with 46% of Americans saying they see Swift favorably and 35% saying they see her unfavorably.

Republicans are responsible for most of that shift. ("I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!" Trump wrote Sunday on his Truth Social network, after previously angling for her support.) In August, Republicans viewed Swift favorably by an 8-point margin (47% to 39%); now they are two times more likely to see her unfavorably (57%) than favorably (27%). A full 70% of Democrats, however, continue to see Swift favorably — essentially unchanged since August.

Regardless of their political leanings, however, relatively few Americans were clamoring for Swift to weigh in, with just a third saying they’d prefer the singer to "publicly endorse political candidates she supports" (33%) rather than "not speak publicly about politics" (45%). In keeping with that sentiment, nearly two-thirds of Americans (64%) say Swift’s endorsement will make “no difference” in how they vote on Election Day.

So is that the end of the story? Not quite.

Signs of backlash?

On the surface, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll hints at potential backlash to Swift's endorsement; more than a fifth of Americans (22%) say it makes them less likely to support Harris.

But context is important here. Nearly all of the people who say Swift’s endorsement makes them less likely to support Harris are already Trump supporters (92%) who say they will “definitely” vote for the former president in November (90%). It’s hard to be “less likely” to vote for one candidate when you were always going to vote for that candidate's rival.

A similar dynamic is at play among Americans who claim to be undecided or open to changing their minds. Within this group, just 3% say Swift’s endorsement makes them more likely to support Harris, while 14% say it makes them less likely.

It’s worth noting, however, that a much larger number of undecided and persuadable Americans (26%) also admit that they lean toward Trump — suggesting that most (if not all) of the “less likely to back Harris now” crowd was already inclined to vote for her opponent. In other words, the Swift endorsement may be triggering Trumpier types, but it isn’t driving many (if any) potential Harris voters away from Harris.

The upside for Harris

There’s a reason, after all, that a majority of Americans (54%) believe the Swift endorsement will have an either very positive (24%) or somewhat positive (30%) effect on Harris's campaign — while just 7% think it will have a negative effect. Even among Republicans, more say Swift will affect Harris positively (31%) than negatively (15%).

Converting voters from one candidate to another is a high bar for any celebrity endorsement; boosting enthusiasm and engagement — and possibly even turnout — is probably a more realistic metric. In that sense, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll suggests some upside for Harris.

According to the survey, 12% of all U.S. adults meet the following three conditions: 1) they view Harris favorably; 2) they view Trump unfavorably; and 3) they say they aren’t registered to vote. Among these unregistered Harris “fans,” 11% say the Swift endorsement makes them “much more likely” to vote for the Democratic nominee — double the number (6%) who say it makes them less likely to vote for her. A full 60% of them view Swift favorably; 62% are under the age of 45.

To be sure, this sliver of nonregistered voters who say they're "much more likely" to support Harris because of Swift's endorsement represents a tiny fraction of the U.S. adult population. But if all of them registered to vote — and went on to vote for Harris — it would add a full percentage point to Harris's head-to-head number against Trump.

Swift has more than 284 million Instagram followers. In the 24 hours after she endorsed Harris last week, more than 400,000 of them clicked on a custom link to vote.gov that the singer posted along with her announcement. Swift is unlikely to transform Trump voters into Harris voters, or vice versa. But she could persuade some nonvoters to turn out for Harris — and in a very close contest, that could make a difference.

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The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,755 U.S. adults interviewed online from Sept. 11 to 13, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to Nov. 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 27% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.9%.