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North Carolina election 2024: Current polls, history and why the state's results matter

By Dylan Stableford, Yahoo News

Students wait in a long line to vote outside the Dudley Building polling place during a get out the vote rally at North Carolina A&T in Greensboro, N.C., Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton) (Chuck Burton/AP)

By Dylan Stableford, Yahoo News

North Carolina is considered one of the seven key swing states that could decide the 2024 presidential election, and polls out of the Tar Heel State show it’s a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Three websites that aggregate battleground state surveys — the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — each has Trump leading Harris in North Carolina by less than two percentage points, which is within their margins of error.

🗳 Key races

In addition to the presidential contest, North Carolina is home to a key gubernatorial race between Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. The winner of the race would replace Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, who is term limited.

Early in the contest, polls forecast a close race between the two candidates. But Stein has moved into a commanding position after a series of scandals about Robinson became public — including a bombshell CNN report alleging that he made a litany of lewd, sexist and racist comments on a porn site's message board.

↩️ Past election history

The results of the last three presidential elections in North Carolina are as follows:

2020: Donald Trump (R) defeated Joe Biden (D) by 1.35%

2016: Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) by 3.66%

2012: Mitt Romney (R) defeated Barack Obama (D) by 2.04%

📈 Which way the state is trending 

Republicans have won 10 of the last 12 presidential elections in North Carolina, including the past three. In 2020, Trump won North Carolina over Biden by less than two percentage points (1.3%). In 2016, he carried the state over Clinton by 3.6%.

📌 Why it matters

A victory in North Carolina would extend Trump’s winning streak in the state and boost his chances in the Electoral College. Meanwhile, a win by Harris would be a welcome sign. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win in North Carolina was Obama in 2008. Before that, it was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

🗣️ What do you think?

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