On Friday, U.S. officials warned any U.S. citizen in Ukraine that they should evacuate as soon as possible because intelligence information suggested that an invasion of the country by Russia was imminent.
According to State Department officials, the White House believes Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and announced Friday that it had ordered all diplomatic personnel to leave the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv.
Why does the U.S. believe an invasion is imminent, and what will happen if one occurs? Here is what we know now.
First, where is Ukraine?
Ukraine is in Eastern Europe and is the second-largest country in that region after Russia.
Ukraine shares borders with Russia (to the east and northeast); Belarus (to the north); Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary (to the west); and Romania and Moldova to the south. It has coastlines along the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
Why is Putin interested in Ukraine?
Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union before the superpower collapsed in 1991.
Putin has said he wants the country to be part of Russia again, saying the people of Ukraine and the Russians are “one people, a single whole.”
However, what Putin appears to be doing is trying to secure assurances from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine will not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which, according to Putin, would pose a threat to Russia’s security.
As talk of Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO has grown, Putin has put out a list of demands concerning the situation, saying he opposed “the endless, in our opinion, and very dangerous expansion of NATO to the East.” Putin has demanded a guarantee that NATO will not allow Ukraine to become a member.
In addition, he wants NATO to cut back or eliminate military exercises in Ukraine and other former Soviet bloc states. Putin is also demanding NATO pull back about 5,000 troops sent to Poland and the Baltic countries after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
Is Russia going to invade Ukraine?
Russia says it has no plans to attack Ukraine, claiming such talk is “dangerous lies” being spread by the West.
However, Russia did invade part of Ukraine in 2014 and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, saying that, historically, the peninsula is part of Russia.
There are an estimated 100,000 Russian troops currently sitting near the Ukrainian border with 30,000 more engaged in military exercises in Belarus, a little less than 700 miles from that country’s border with Ukraine.
Those military exercises are being held in response to the threat the West poses to Russian security, according to Russian officials. There have also been reports that Russian ships have moved closer to Ukrainian coastlines on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
In addition, Russia is moving S-400 surface-to-air missile systems into Belarus, according to reports. Since Belarus also borders NATO members Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, Western officials have been expressing concern that a conflict in the region would draw in NATO and trigger Article 5 that says if one of NATO’s members is attacked, it will be considered an attack on all NATO members.
Is Ukraine part of NATO?
No, Ukraine is not part of NATO but it is a “partner country” to NATO and there have been ongoing talks about the country joining the military alliance.
A partner country works with NATO on “common cross-cutting security challenges such as cyber defense, counter-terrorism, non-proliferation and resilience,” according to the organization.
Will Ukraine become a member of NATO?
Ukraine is unlikely to be granted membership in NATO any time soon, but It is the fact that Ukraine could become a NATO member that has Putin nervous.
Last June, President Joe Biden said the country has not met NATO standards for admission, particularly as it has not made enough progress in fighting political corruption.
In 2008, a NATO summit agreed that Ukraine and Georgia, also a former Soviet satellite country, would join, but neither country was given a Membership Action Plan, or steps necessary to move on toward membership, The Washington Post reported.
What would happen if Russia invaded Ukraine?
If Putin does invade the country, President Biden has promised that the U.S. would launch economic sanctions against Russia that would include penalties on banks, state companies, key imports, and possibly individuals.
Biden has also said that if an attack happens, the U.S. and NATO would consider increasing their presence in Eastern Europe.
Should Putin decide to attack, U.S. military intelligence estimates that 25,000 to 50,000 civilians would be killed or wounded, and between 3,000 and 10,000 Russian troops and between 5,000 and 25,000 Ukrainian troops would be killed or wounded.
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