JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — For those paying close attention to NFL offenses in recent years, the game has begun to change yet again as the record-breaking passing era has all but subsided.
Offensive efficiency has taken its place.
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It seems 2020 was its peak as the NFL set records in points per game, yards per game, completions, passing TDs per game and NFL Rating. It was the pinnacle of an offensive takeover in the NFL.
Four years later and the NFL offenses are taking a different approach to the game. The introduction of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen forced defenses to look for a way to stop the high-powered offenses.
Vic Fangio and Brandon Staley popularizing the two-high safety shells have done just that, giving up defenders inside the box in favor of preventing the deep ball.
The NFL’s passing average depth of target (ADOT) supports this sentiment as the ADOT has fallen from 8.8 yards in 2015 to just 7.7 in 2024. Teams are throwing a full yard shorter now on average than they did a decade ago.
Patrick Mahomes, a catalyst for this change, has seen his ADOT fall from 9.5 in 2018 to just 6.9 this past season. Josh Allen has been a bit more stubborn, however, his ADOT has similarly fallen from 11.5 in 2018 to 8.8 in 2024.
While the points and yardage numbers might not look as great as they did in years prior, NFL offenses are more efficient now than ever and the data proves it.
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In 2024, NFL offenses scored on 38.4% of drives (2nd highest ever), turned the ball over on just 10.7% of drives (lowest ever), saw a historically high completion of 65.3% and threw just 0.7 interceptions a game (fewest ever).
Even the rushing efficiency was among the NFL’s best ever as teams averaged 4.4 yards per carry, the second-highest average in NFL history.
It’s an ever-changing game and we are in the midst of another era in NFL football, an era consisting of long drives, short passing, high-percentage throws and mistake-free football.
Fans love to see the deep ball and it’s what has made the last decade so fun to watch as offenses have seemingly scored at will. In that time, fans have witnessed some of the NFL greatest offenses and passers ever.
But that’s not the way the game is headed anymore.
At some point, NFL defenses will pivot back to loading more defenders into the box to try to slow down some of these offenses. Then, the cycle will start over once again. For now though, it very much is death by 1,000 papercuts for defenses.
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