Buresh Blog: Busy Tropics!

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — First Alert Neighborhood Weather Network. Scan below &/or click * here *:

“Talking the Tropics With Mike” is updated every day through Nov. 30th - the end of the Atlantic hurricane season.

While the pure number for the ‘24 hurricane season may have been a bit “sluggish” at mid season, the tropics have more than made up for it recently. Another very impactful & U.S. landfalling hurricane will occur as Milton move across the Gulf then into & across Florida. Milton will be the 5th(!) U.S. hurricane landfall of the season - Beryl, Debby, Francine & Helene were the other four. Helene, of course, to never be forgotten. The west coast of Florida had a serious storm surge from Helene that caused significant damage & now Milton is following just two weeks later.

From the USGS:

USGS Coastal Change Experts Warn of Heightened Risks for Florida’s West Coast as Hurricane Milton Approaches in the Aftermath of Helene

The state’s entire west coast projected to become eroded and overwashed

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – U.S. Geological Survey experts project that Hurricane Milton, expected to make landfall on Florida’s west coast as early as Wednesday, will bring significant coastal change.

Currently, 95 percent of the sandy beaches on Florida’s west coast are forecasted to become inundated—meaning continuously covered by ocean water—from Milton, according to a USGS coastal change forecast issued Monday. This is the most severe level of coastal change and can cause flooding behind sand dunes that may impact coastal communities.

USGS experts estimate Milton’s waves and surge have the potential to cause both 100 percent of all ocean-facing beaches in Florida to experience erosion and overwash. Overwash occurs when water levels reach higher than the top of dunes. When a beach is overwashed, sand can be pushed and deposited inland, causing significant changes to coastal landscapes and blocking roadways. Overwash can reduce the height of protective sand dunes, alter beach profiles, and leave areas behind the dunes more vulnerable to future storms.

“The significance of the coastal change forecast for Milton’s impact to the Florida west coast cannot be overstated as I believe communities are more vulnerable to this storm’s impacts due to the erosion that occurred recently from Helene,” said Kara Doran, a USGS supervisory physical scientist who works on the coastal change forecast. “Our initial analysis looking at imagery collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration after Helene shows most of the west coast experienced overwash or inundation and complete erosion of dunes, so those protective dunes are no longer in place for many locations.”

According to the National Hurricane Center, Milton may bring life-threatening storm surge along with hurricane-force winds, and heavy rain.

This USGS coastal change forecast for Milton is a worst-case scenario that can provide vital insights to help emergency management officials make informed decisions.

Click * here * for an interesting site by the USGS that shows coastal impacts from storms including shoreline change.

Also from the USGS:

USGS deploys sensors along Florida’s Gulf Coast to measure impacts of Hurricane Milton

Tampa, FL —As Hurricane Milton approaches Florida, scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey are deploying wave sensors at eight locations today in the Sunshine State between Naples and Crystal River to measure the coastal waves caused by the storm.

USGS Field crews will also install one rapid-deployment gauge on the Sunshine Skyway bridge in St. Petersburg, Florida. This specialized piece of equipment is a fully-functional streamgage designed to be deployed quickly and temporarily to measure and transmit real-time water level data in emergency situations. This data can be used by decision makers and emergency managers to monitor water levels as they work to save lives and property.

Potential impacts from Milton include life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the Florida Peninsula, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The USGS wave sensors will measure water levels and give insight on factors such as wave height and frequency as well as storm tide, which is storm surge combined with local tides. Storm tides are among the most dangerous natural hazards unleashed by hurricanes. They can destroy homes and businesses; wipe out roads, bridges, water and sewer systems; and profoundly alter coastal landscapes.

The sensors will be in place from before Milton arrives until the storm departs, and at that time, scientists will retrieve the instruments and analyze collected data. The resulting information can be used to fine-tune future storm surge and coastal change forecasts. The sensor data can help identify areas hit the hardest by storm surge and guide emergency responders and local officials with recovery efforts. Insight can also help inform flood insurance maps and building codes to improve structural designs for public safety.

The wave sensors are housed in vented aluminum pipes a few inches wide and about a foot long. They are being installed on bridges, piers, and other structures that have a good chance of surviving the storm.

Information on the sensor deployment and rapid deployment gauge will be available on the USGS Flood Event Viewer.