Buresh Blog: Debby details & analysis... Losing your best friend: Opie

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“Talking the Tropics With Mike” updated every single day during the hurricane season.

So “Debby” is behind us. I guess I would categorize the storm as a low to moderate hit on Northeast Florida & Southeast Georgia with rain water being the biggest story - as much as 20″+ in Columbia County! Nearly 6″ fell at JIA in Northern Duval Co. including a single day record for Aug. 5th of 4.46″. The post tropical cyclone report by the Jacksonville N.W.S. can be found * here *.

Let’s examine the enigma that was “Debby Downer”. From a forecasting standpoint, Debby was pretty difficult, especially early on. And there were a lot of Monday morning quarterbacks & plenty of social media “forecasters” spewing their thoughts & - in some cases - blatant misleading info. I simply ask folks to find a reliable source for their weather (news too for that matter!) & stick to them.

In any case... I sent our Action News Jax news management team an early “heads-up” email on Fri., July 26th:

Just a ‘First Alert’ & heads-up - very early & very much only a possibility right now:

next weekend into early the following week (~Aug. 3-7) MIGHT ber tropical mischief not too far away from Jax &/or Fl.

TGIF!

I sent a follow-up email Mon., July 29 & as outlined in “Talking the Tropics With Mike” (6 hours later the NHC issued their first outlook indicating potential development):

A wide range of possible outcomes for a disturbance now over the Central Atlantic.... ranging from a hurricane to nothing at all(!)... & ranging anywhere from Florida to the Gulf coast to the U.S. eastern seaboard.

Stay up to date... realize there will be daily changes in the forecast....

Let us know if there are any questions or concerns. Thx!

Happy Monday...

During the first few days of “potential development”, there was a lot of confusion regarding the yellow then orange then red “blob” which simply indicated the area for possible development & is not a cone indicating where a tropical cyclone is forecast to track once the system has developed.

And the internet & social media were rife with projections on where a system might track or whether or not a system would even develop. Even other meteorologists missed the boat unfortunately (at least in some cases). There were folks confused by the lack of any thunderstorms early on which is not uncommon with tropical waves that have failed to develop yet. But the wave was very evident on surface observations with an abrupt & noticeable change in air pressure & especially wind direction on either side of the wave axis.

Many jumped on the not so good call of “turning north well east of Florida & the east coast” due to the way over hyped & too often ballyhooed European model. I emphasized the uncertainty all week as well as a more shallow system is likely to get farther west vs. a deeper, faster developing system which is why the European model ended up being hundreds of miles too far north & northeast prior to the system actually developing. You can follow my day by to day summaries & forecasts in “Talking the Tropics With Mike” (TTTWM) which still shows my thinking & forecasts going back to before Debby even developed.

Graphics I tweeted Wed., July 31st - (1) NHC favored area for development... (2) My/First Alert Weather team forecast possibilities... (3) The European (yellow) vs. GFS (magenta) valid for Mon., 08/05.

We finally had a depression develop Fri., Aug. 2nd. By this time, a more westward track was obvious & all forecast models had latched onto what would become “Debby” with the primary questions: how far west, how strong & would there be impacts on Florida. My TTTWM & email to the news room:

“Prime time” for our viewing area appears to be Sun./Mon. - heavy rain, isolated tornadoes & waterspouts. Not expecting a “big hit”.

The “Buresh Bottom Line”:

* the probability of a tropical system near Florida looks high late in the weekend/early next week.

* Concerns would be centered around heavy rain - possibly very heavy, moderately rough seas & surf, a high rip current risk & isolated tornadoes/waterspouts. Winds should be gusty but not severe.

* Florida is the “fork in the road” for direction of movement & speed.

* There is the potential for a stronger tropical system in the *longer range*.

* Heads up for all of Florida, the Central & Eastern Gulf coast & the U.S. east coast.

* Gusty rain & t’storm squalls will impact Hispaniola & nearby islands, Central & Southern Bahamas as well as Jamaica & Cuba into Saturday... & Florida later in the weekend/early next week.

Keep in mind the NHC shading is the area where development of a tropical system *might* occur & is NOT a forecast cone (as one would see when/if a tropical cyclone has actually developed)...

The forecast track headache was now the turn north & northeast thanks to an upper level trough forecast to dig southeast into the Eastern U.S. effectively slicing through the semi-permanent ridge of high pressure that’s been a main stay of this summer & one of the reasons the summer has been hotter than average. How sharp north the turn might be would at least be partially dictated by how strong the system would become... & how fast. And lastly would the upper level trough truly pick up Debby - as indicated by the European model - or would Debby get left behind & move back to the west - as indicated by the American GFS model. The answers ended up being a pretty sharp turn north... steady strengthening up to landfall... & an end game somewhere between the GFS & European models as the GFS was way too far west & south while the European was a good deal too far east. In other words, a compromise between models - or consensus - ended up being the most accurate (& helpful) forecast which is common.

And it’s very worth noting how steady & accurate the NHC forecast was(!).

In the end Debby made landfall as a Cat. 1 hurricane with sustained winds near 80 mph (surface pressure near 979mb/28.91″) early Mon., Aug. 5th on the Big Bend coast - the 2nd landfalling hurricane of the season for the U.S. (Beryl Cat. 1 at landfall in Texas in early July). The average for named storms landfalls on the Lower 48 is two per season. Debby was also the 2nd hurricane landfall in the not-so-often visited Big Bend of Florida in less than a year (”Idalia” late Aug., 2023).

Here was my specific forecast for the local area (& “Bottom Line”) - Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. - the day before landfall tweeted on Sunday, Aug. 4th:

The local rainfall (Sun.-Wed., Aug. 4-7) & peak wind gusts:

A tornado warning for Eastern Duval & Northern St. Johns Co. was issued late Mon. afternoon (08/05) due to rotation indicated on radar within an outer band of Debby. No tornado apparently touched down due to the circulation staying mainly aloft. In fact, there were multiple reports of not even a whole of wind but very heavy rain with the passing of the cell though we did get a few 50-60 mph wind gusts closer to the coast:

This tornado pic likely spawned by the same cell that produced a confirmed EF-1 tornado to the southwest in Union County (Sunday, 08/04):

The very capable Nick Stewart did some valuable freelance work for Action News Jax:

To the First Alert Weather staff: such a good job. Caring meteorologists who want to work, will work & communicate the weather message in a calm, collected, accurate, concise, realistic manner AND without hype. Period.

So I regret to say.... completely changing the topic(!) - the Buresh family had to put down their best friend, Opie. This was at just about the same time as my youngest daughter’s college graduation & dealing with work & Debby. It’s been an extremely emotional week to say the least.

So Opie:

* he was but a few months old when we adopted the little guy in the summer of 2012 - approximately the same time that one of our favorite actors Andy Griffith passed away hence, the name “Opie”. :)

* this was dog #2 for the fam. We rescued Butch in 1997 - he lived all the way to 16 until he was put to doggie rest. That was an awful day too, & my youngest daughter says it’s the first time she saw me cry (which was while I was burying him in the backyard with his tennis ball & a family pic).

* I’m more of a bigger dog kind of guy, but the kids & my wife wanted a true lap dog so we went with a yorkie/shih tzu mix the second time around. I went with the flow (of course - I mean I was outnumbered by 3 females!) - & the tiny but admittedly cute fur ball became our next family member.

* the first few days, Opie wanted little to do with me which very much concerned my daughters. I said “just you wait & see”. Sure enough - within a few days Opie & I were buds. Though - ultimately - my wife was truly his “person”.

* Opie did have health issues from time to time but basically he was in pretty good shape the first 7-9 years living the life of a spoiled dog. He “saw” both girls graduate High School & leave the “nest”. I believe this is when Opie developed his very close bond with my wife.

* By the time he was about 8 years old, Opie started to dislike the sound of thunder. Before long he was remarkably astute at “predicting” thunderstorms long before they formed. Unfortunately nothing would really resolve this predicament for the poor guy including thunder sweaters, meds prescribed by our veterinarian, CBD drops, etc. He didn’t even like seeing the flash of lightning at night whether or not there was thunder. Opie would try to squeeze into any small space - closet, shelves or cupboards - when there was thunder. In our last house, he would get on the back of the couch & lay there looking out the windows as if inspecting the weather ready to give the ‘first alert’ should storm clouds form.

* Opie was generally not one to enjoy meeting other dogs. A bit stand-offish I suppose :) ... & he also was not a fan of most males until & unless he got to know them well. He also was not at all happy with big trucks (like a UPS truck), golf carts, skate boarders or anyone carrying something unrecognizable or large in their hands.

* And oh the zooms! Opie sure could run around the house releasing a mountain of energy with multiple laps through the house including Fred Flintstone-like turns where his legs & feet were turning but he was essentially stationary until he could regain his footing :)

* Opie had this sometimes annoying but mostly very cute way of wanting to be petted. He would jump on your lap & paw at your hand or arm until you finally started to pet him. Stop petting, & he reaches out to paw your arm. Sometimes this could go on for 30 minutes or more.

* And when I would come home from work on my dinner break the last few years, Opie would sit on the floor next to me until I finished dinner (& some chocolate for dessert, of course!) then would jump up in my lap ‘til I had to go back to work.

* Opie survived being accidentally burned while his teeth were being worked on some years ago... & a rattlesnake bite last summer. But personally I believe Opie’s recent failing health can be tied to the snake bite. Opie began having seizures which we could initially treat with medicine. But in recent months, his hearing started to fade along with his overall energy. Then his seizures started to increase in number & - very recently - severity. By last weekend (08/03), Opie was losing control of his bowels. could hold down little food, water or medicine & the seizures increased in number & intensity. It was awful to witness. More meds would result in a dog we no longer recognized. By Monday, 08/05 it seemed clear we had little recourse. It was a difficult decision & a devastating blow.

* I find myself waking up in the middle of the night - 2am today - thinking I hear the pitter-patter steps of Opie... or hearing thunder & thinking ‘oh Opie is going to be upset’... or looking to throw some extra ice in his water bowl. And one of these days we’ll pick up his toys scattered about the house.

* During these times, I’m always reminded of Jimmy Stewart’s “A Dog Named Beau” * here *.

I imagine & hope that Opie & ol’ Butch are running around in “doggie heaven” talking about the Buresh’s. :) For sure - we talk about them.

Our first family dog - Butch - at Halloween fundraiser with my two then very young daughters: