Talking the Tropics w/ Mike: Hurricane Milton headed to Florida with major to severe impacts

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: Significant impacts through Thursday from “Milton”.

LOCAL IMPACTS FROM MILTON FOR JACKSONVILLE/NE FLORIDA & SE GEORGIA:

* I understand there are “scary” headlines & social media posts out there. I will remain constant, vigilant, responsible & as consistent as possible with the local impacts. There is no need to panic but checking & updating storm/hurricane preparedness kits & plans should be underway. If you live an evacuation zone & you become alerted to a ‘mandatory’ evacuation, the best advice is to ... EVACUATE. Be sure to secure any & all objects that could be blown around by strong winds. If you live in a flood prone area, be prepared for considerable flooding and the need to get to higher/dry ground.

* AS OF RIGHT NOW... it continues to look like the greatest impacts to the local area will be *south & east of hardest hit areas from Helene* - the Lake City to Waycross corridor.

* RAIN - After 1-2+ inches of rain over the weekend + another 1-3″ Tue. night/early Wed. & the wet last few months... the “table is set” for flooding when heavy rain from Milton reaches the local area Wed. into Thursday. There is a lot of water in the “system”.... the ground is saturated... we’re in the seasonal King Tides cycle... & flooding will easily occur during heavy rain & due to storm surge. Rainfall amounts Wed. through Thu. (not necessarily all of the rain directly from Milton) look to be heaviest across NE Fl. near/east of Highway 301 & near & south of I-10 & may be reach 5-10″+ depending on exact track of Milton. Amounts may exceed a 10-12″ over St. Johns & parts of Clay & Putnam Co. with some areas 15″+. There will be a tight gradient to lighter amounts north & west of Jacksonville & farther away from Milton’s center. Even just across Duval Co. rainfall will range from approximately 2-5″ over NW Duval to 4-7+″ downtown to 5-9″+ over SE Duval.

* WINDS will be breezy with onshore flow through Wednesday & will increase markedly late Wed. through Thu. with the closest approach of Milton but still about 150 miles south of Jacksonville. Do not let the distance to the center fool you into thinking there won’t be much wind, especially at & near the coast. Trees will again be susceptible to being rather easily uprooted due to the saturated ground + some trees have been weakened by Helene’s winds last week. Sustained winds at tropical storm force - 40+ mph - appear likely for parts of NE Florida with hurricane force gusts - 75+ mph - closer to the coast & beaches & parts of Clay, St. Johns, Putnam & Flagler Co. Sustained winds 15-25mph for SE Ga. with gusts 30+ mph but along the Ga. coast sustained winds will be 25-35 mph with gusts 40-50+ mph. Wind direction will out of the east (onshore) through Wed. night into Thu. then shift to more out of the northeast then north/northeast later Thursday.

* COAST: Milton looks very rough & damaging for the beaches with an extended period of onshore flow increasing in intensity through Thu. before becoming more north/northeast later Thu. into Friday. Expect heavy to severe beach erosion & coastal flooding. Seas will easily be well into double digits... with breakers at the beaches of 10-15+ feet. All mariners should plan to be ready to stay in port & to have things buttoned up - or evacuating &/or moving vessels to a safer port - by late Wed. (10/9).... & there should be no swimming or surfing.

* STORM SURGE: Storm surge is forecast to be significant & average 3-5 feet along the coast of Duval, St. Johns & Flagler Co. but locally 6+ feet in parts of St. Johns & Flagler Co. Surge of 2-4 feet for the St. Johns River... which does *not* take into account wave action or rain water.

* Minor FLOODING can be expected along the St. Johns River & its tributaries through Wednesday, especially at high tide.. then at least moderate flooding Wed. night - Thu. With all the rain expected to fall north of the track of Milton, flooding will continue along the St. Johns River & its tributaries - especially near high tide - for weeks, possibly months.

If you experienced flooding at the coast/beaches, intracoastal, Black Creek & St. Johns tributaries during Matthew, Irma or Nicole, you will likely experience flooding from Milton. While St. Johns River levels will be high with moderate flooding at times, it is *not* similar to Helene OR Irma since the center of Milton will be well south of Jacksonville (winds will not be blowing due north up the river toward d’town Jax).

* Isolated WATERSPOUTS & TORNADOES - low risk but some risk as bands northeast of the center rotate counterclockwise to the west & NW as Milton approaches then crosses Fl. Much higher tornado risk across Central & South Florida.

* POWER OUTAGES - Isolated outages over inland SE Ga. & North Central Florida becoming scattered over NE Florida & far/coastal SE Ga. near & a little either way of Highway 301... to potentially widespread outages near the I-95 corridor to the beaches. Winds will be too strong into Thursday evening for utility crews to make much headway on power restoration but weather improves dramatically Fri. through the weekend.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* Milton will make a Florida landfall Wed. night (Oct. 9th) as a strong Cat. 3+ hurricane. This is a very high impact storm for most of Florida with the exception of far NW Fl. & the Panhandle. Expect Cat. 4 or 5 storm surge values to be realized near & just to the south of Milton’s eye at landfall on the west coast. Severe flooding will occur along & north of Milton’s track. Moderate to major impacts (flooding & rain) will occur far from the center of Milton across Florida & even as far east as the Bahamas & as far north as the Carolina coast.

* “Leslie” is over the Eastern Atlantic stay far to the east over the open Atlantic & is no threat to land.

* “The Hell that was Helene” - Buresh Blog.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) Heads-up Florida - hurricane preparedness should be completed by Wed. morning.

A Storm Surge WARNING: Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay ... Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River

A Hurricane WARNING: Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay ... Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge WATCH: North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane WATCH: Dry Tortugas ... Lake Okeechobee ... Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach ... Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River ... Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm WARNING: Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay ... Lake Okeechobee ... Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach ... Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass ... Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo ... North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River ... Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm WATCH: North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina.

* Forecast storm surge inundation interactive maps * here *.

Low pressure became tropical depression #14 over the Western Gulf Sat. morning & was upgraded to tropical storm “Milton” Sat. afternoon - the 13th named storm of the Atlantic season... the avg. date for the 13th storm is Oct. 25th... & to the 9th hurricane of the Atlantic season Sunday afternoon which is already above the avg. for an entire season. Milton became a ‘major’ Cat. 3 hurricane early Mon.... becoming a Cat. 5 by midday Monday. Milton then went through an eyewall replacement cycle Monday night causing some weakening that may have also been helped by proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula & the ingestion of some dry continental air. Milton returned to a Cat. 5 Tue. afternoon before finally beginning to fall off that peak Wed. morning. Milton should remain off its peak as the hurricane enters a more unfavorable area - higher shear & friction effects from Florida - through Wed. night. BUT Milton will remain a very dangerous, ‘major’ hurricane at landfall with an ever widening “wing span” of strong winds & will be rather slow to weaken while crossing the Peninsula exiting into the Atlantic later Thu. still with hurricane force winds.

It’s very important to (1) not get caught up on the category of the storm - recall that Katrina hit the Gulf Coast as a Cat. 3 but had a Cat. 5 storm surge...I suspect Milton’s storm surge will more like that of at least Cat. 4 if not Cat. 5(!).... (2) not get fixated on the center point of Milton as any slight wobble will change the exact center point not to mention dangerous impacts will extend far away from the center. The width of tropical storm force winds is expected to expand while crossing Florida with at least tropical storm force wind gusts as far north as Savannah & south to the Keys. Hurricane force wind gusts at some of the beaches of NE Florida. High pressure to the north + a transition to post-tropical should force higher-than-would-be-expected winds on the north & northwest side of exiting Milton.

A landfall in the middle of the night & a bit slower trek across Florida equals impacts into Thursday evening for much of the state. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME MASSAGING OF THE EXACT FORECAST IMPACTS!

Forecast models are in good agreement & confidence is high on a strong hurricane hitting the west coast of Florida.... pretty evenly matched on timing - Wed. night into Thursday morning. Differences at landfall locations along the west coast has narrowed & the Tampa Bay metro is going to slammed by its most direct hit by a ‘major’ hurricane in some 100+ years. The GFS has landfall just south of Tampa Bay at 2am Thu...the European model is in Tampa Bay at 6am & is a little stronger than most other models. It does look like there will be a decent turn east while crossing Florida. This turn east would have very big implications for direct impacts & their intensity for Jacksonville & NE Florida, especially when it comes to rainfall.

The Climavision ‘Horizon AI’ global model seems to be a good compromise regarding the Milton’s track & intensity. The ‘Horizon’ initiated a trend late Thu. to stronger & more north with a strong hurricane going over the top of Tampa Bay Wed. night.... & has also trended slower with a sharper turn to the east across Fl. Thursday & seems to be pretty locked in. The ‘Horizon’ was quite good with Helene. The ‘Horizon’ has the eye on the south tip of Tampa Bay at 2am Thu.

Weak low pressure to the east of Milton is moving east of Florida complicating the overall scenario with Milton... & may very well be why Milton drifted more southeast earlier this week. I also suspect this lead low was strong enough to nudge the front/trough south some which would possibly then take Milton a *little* more south. Something trending in most of the forecast models.

So the west &/or SW coast of Fl. is line for a ‘major’ hurricane Wed. night, exiting the east coast of Fl. Thu. possibly not until late Thursday.

Beware! - this set-up remains in flux... but there WILL BE very heavy rain & significant to major flooding for parts of Florida this week. Expect specific forecast details to ebb & flow at least somewhat. But especially heavy rain & heavy to severe flooding will occur near the track of Milton extending roughly 100 miles to the north & northeast bringing some of the very heavy rain & high water as far north as Flagler, Putnam, St. Johns, Clay & possibly Southeast Duval Co.

As for the upper level - 500mb/30,000 feet - trough of low pressure diving down into the Eastern U.S. - has a lot to do with where Milton will ultimately go & how it will track across Florida. With the trough axis is far enough east, Milton will get shunted more east with time which is what the models have latched onto. This turn is very, very critical for exact impacts. Confluent upper level flow on the backside of the trough will continue to produce shear near Florida as well as a vector pointing SE - both of which could be factors in the structure of the storm & where Milton moves... & likely taking Milton off its peak upon approach to Florida but still an intense hurricane at landfall with more & more of the heavy rain & strongest winds gradually becoming more dominant on the east, north & northwest quadrants of Milton. Friction from land & increasing shear will have an effect on Milton’s strength. Bottom line is there will still be some changes on exact strength of Milton & its exact track to & across Florida but regardless this is a big hit on the Florida Peninsula.

But much of the Florida Peninsula is in line for a very impactful hurricane!

Remember - the cone will get skinnier as Milton gets closer to Florida *but* impacts will extend well beyond the cone & certainly well beyond the center!

It’s critical to realize the impacts - wind field including damaging winds & flooding - will extend far beyond the forecast cone of Milton!

Climavision’s HorizonAI Global Model (this model uses its own data & analysis for initialization of each model run + some AI input) for 2am Thu., Oct. 10 then 8am Thu. then 2pm Thu. Indicates an intense hurricane on the south edge of Tampa Bay followed by a turn more east, slightly northeast along/near & a little south of I-4 with an exit near Cape Canaveral Thu. afternoon. This is a little faster now ... & continues to indicate the sharper east turn but has also captured the transition to post-tropical with a widening girth of winds far to the north of the center & extreme rainfall to the immediate north of the center including Orlando which should result is severe flooding.

This is the ‘Horizon’ 500 mb (upper level) forecasts for early Wed., Oct 9th showing the trough over the Northeast U.S. with more of a “baggy” trough to the south interacting with “Milton”. This trough will impart some shear over/near Florida as well as a tendency to *possibly” suppress the tropical cyclone at least a little more south (vs. Gulf Coast) & is helping to carve out the alleyway northeast to Florida after which the larger trough to the northeast turns Milton more eastward. The turn northeast & its subsequent track to the W/SW coast of Florida was clearly telegraphed Tuesday as a trough of low pressure ignited with convection to the northeast of Milton including a well defined band of lower/falling pressure. Milton should now follow that trough/band of pressure falls to Florida.

Strong shear over Northern Gulf may tilt Milton at least some to the east. But Milton will moving in the direction of the shear vectors which may not hinder the storm as much as the magnitudes of 25+ mph typically might. Otherwise all other systems are “go” - warm to very warm water... lots of atmospheric moisture.

#firstalertwx considerations for #Milton - very warm water temps... warm deep oceanic heat content with very warm eddy E. Gulf... lots of moisture = favorable for strengthening... shear will increase with eastward extent but will be in line w/ forward movement so less detrimental pic.twitter.com/Ky3FSohWv2
— Mike Buresh (@MikeFirstAlert) October 5, 2024

Climavision ‘Horizon’ global forecast model indicates as much as 5-9″ for rain SE Duval Co., parts of Clay Co... & 10-12″+ for parts of St. Johns & Putnam Co.:

7-day forecast rainfall:

(2) Tropical depression #13 has formed right behind - to the east of - & was upgraded to “Leslie” Wed. night & became a hurricane Fri. evening - the 8th of the Atlantic season & now exceeds the avg. for the entire season of 7 hurricanes. Like Kirk, sister Leslie will stay well out to the east over the Central Atlantic while weakening. The 12th named storm develops - on avg. - Oct. 11th.

Due to the intensity of the two storms, an easterly swell will emanate far to the west reaching the east coast through the upcoming week further enhancing the already high rip current risk at beaches along the east coast, Bermuda & the Caribbean.

(3) low pressure to the east of the Bahamas has flared up with strong convecton. Pretty strong shear should limit much development but the system could briefly become a tropical depression or storm before some interaction with “Leslie” in a few days.

And a tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa with some potential for development but will quickly turn northwest so will stay over the far Eastern Atlantic but may bring some gusty squalls to the Cape Verde Islands.

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows far less “sinking” air (brown lines) spreading across the Pacific Basin. With sinking air, tropical development can occur but overall conditions are not as conducive as when there is overall rising (green lines) air where convection is active. This “pulse” of upward motion has moved eastward & likely helped Helene & other Atlantic tropical cyclones & is past its peak. Milton managed to take advantage of the tail end of the “upward” pulse.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

October tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Nadine” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: