Talking the Tropics w/ Mike: Likely Caribbean tropical system during upcoming week then into Gulf

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: Potential Rafael moving into the Gulf of Mexico could enhance rainfall mid to late week along with increasing onshore flow causing rough seas & surf & a high rip current risk.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* The Caribbean continues to be an area to watch for tropical development over the next few days eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

* Subtropical storm “Patty” has been impacting the Azores & is weakening upon approach to Portugal.

* “Mighty Milton” - Buresh Blog - recap of the hurricane including the forecast.

* “The Hell that was Helene” - Buresh Blog.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) ‘97-L’ - The Caribbean & eventually Gulf of Mexico remains the area to watch...

Climavision ‘HorizonAI’ global model is below & has been a good “steady eddy” & compromise between other models this hurricane season. The forecast map below is for Tue., Nov. 5th indicating at least a tropical storm near the south coast of Cuba. The next forecast map is for Thu., Nov. 7th showing the system - while weakening - into the Eastern & NE Gulf of Mexico. The third image shows the upper level (~30,000 feet) forecast for late week showing a broad & strong trough over the Central U.S. with a rather narrow ridge of high pressure to the east of Florida. This set-up is allowing for an alleyway from the Caribbean to the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ‘Horizon’ follows this alleyway all the way to the NE Gulf as does the Canadian model while the GFS & European models show a stronger ridge east of Fl. helping to turn the system sharper to the west over the Gulf. None of the models are very strong over the Gulf despite such an orientation of an upper level trough with a tropical system to its south/SE can typically increasing upper level ventilation which can induce a stronger tropical cyclone. Gulf water temps. are sufficiently warm too. Yet the models shows a weakening system once over the Gulf & this appears to be related to increasing mid & upper level shear - out of the west 40+ mph - as well as an east-west zone of substantially dry air.

Otherwise the Caribbean is an area strongly favored late in the hurricane season... not to mention a “hot spot” this season. Overall - forecast models are coming into agreement on a tropical cyclone that thrives in/near the Caribbean, far Southern Gulf before weakening - unanimously - across the Gulf.

The trend this season has been for the GFS to be pretty decent at sniffing out development but not so good on track & timing. The European has been slow to pick up on things but then much better once it’s latched onto a system but with a west bias. The ‘Horizon’ has been pretty darn good in both respects & has generally been a good compromise for the forecast.

So the bottom line: an initially stronger tropical cyclone should evolve from Jamaica to Cuba then weakening while moving over the Gulf.

The most significant impacts for Florida appear to be the potential for heavy rain largely driven by the potential system itself on the west coast & Panhandle.... & driven by onshore flow on the east coast possibly including Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. Depending on how strong the system remains over the Gulf, there could be some storm surge & wind impacts on the west coast of Florida & the Keys.

7-Day rainfall forecast:

(2) Subtropical storm Patty was upgraded early Sat. Heavy rain, rough seas & gusty winds will impact the Azores where a tropical storm WARNING is in effect. Patty will move more northeast once past the Azores while weakening over cool water & increasing westerly shear.

(3) There are some model indications of more Caribbean tropical trouble toward the middle of Nov. which would match up with the overall large scale weather pattern & a pulse of the MJO.

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows “sinking” air (brown lines) across the Atlantic Basin which equates with a downturn in overall convection. With sinking air, tropical development can occur but overall conditions are not as conducive as when there is overall rising (green lines) air where convection is active. An upward “pulse” over the Atlantic is due again in Nov. & could aid a potential system(s) over the Caribbean, Gulf or SW Atlantic.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

November tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Rafael” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: