Talking the Tropics With Mike: Bret strengthens some but strong shear awaits

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Impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. from “Bret”: None.

The strong & well organized tropical wave - ‘92-L’ was upgraded to tropical depression #3 over the Eastern Atlantic Mon. morning then to tropical storm Bret Mon. afternoon. This (a named storm developing so far to the east in the deep tropical Atlantic) is an unusual development for so early in the season. In fact, it’s the 7th earliest occurrence for the 3rd named Atlantic storm (avg. for the first one is June 20th) & is the farthest east in the tropical Atlantic for a storm to be named so early in the season. Bret took advantage of: (1) an early season uptick in tropical waves that have already been marching westward... (2) above avg. & warm ocean temps. over most of the lower Atlantic Basin (has cooled to the north)... & (3) the El Nino is in its infancy & is still strengthening (which may help to slow the season near its climatological peak in Sept./early Oct.).

The favorable conditions for intensification for Bret will only last through about late Thu. The strong shear that awaits is already showing signs of impacting the western portion of Bret’s circulation. Bret will encounter even stronger wind shear - on the order of 25-40 mph out of the west + some pockets of dry air, upon approach to the Caribbean by Fri. into the weekend. Strong shear over the Caribbean is typical of early season conditions & often times a hallmark through a good part of the hurricane season when there is an El Nino (such is the case this year).

Long range global models are all now in good agreement with Bret degenerating into an open wave over the Caribbean once west of the Lesser Antilles. Given the weaker system, more west is the call & what’s left of Bret should have few serious consequences for any of the Caribbean island nations (beyond the Windward [Lesser Antilles] Islands).

The second tropical wave - ‘93-L’ behind - to the east of - Bret continues to move west/northwest. This wave continues to organize & probably will become “Cindy”. All indications are that this wave will turn northward far to the east of the U.S. & Caribbean so no land impacts.

Yet a 3rd wave is coming off the coast of Africa & has at least some potential for development.

Forecast models - for the most part - show little in the way of organized low pressure developing over or near the Gulf of Mexico later this week....

The combination of a weak wave over the Southwest Caribbean + an upper level trough extending southward to the Gulf still could* lead to a surface reflection (low pressure system) forming over or near the Eastern Gulf over the next few days. While the low is a “conditional” potential development, this will be something to watch as this would be a quick, late “bloomer” close to land areas. But any possible surface low would likely be quite weak The pattern is already wet over Fl. thanks to the nearby upper trough, so any tropical input would only add to the potential for significant flooding.

We’ll monitor the Gulf for any persistent convection that might be the hint of a low pressure area trying to form.

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

June tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for June:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Cindy” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.