Talking the Tropics With Mike: A couple of tropical waves to watch in the longer term

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

Not much cookin’ in the short term...

But there are signs that the July will open up more active than recent weeks:

(1) A pretty active tropical wave is entering the Southeast Caribbean moving W/NW. Proximity to land + moderate to strong shear should limit organization for now some longer range development will be possible by the weekend over the Western Caribbean. No impacts to Jacksonville or any of Florida & the wave will stay well south of the Caribbean Islands once west of the Lesser Antilles.

(2) A strong tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa. Initially the air is dry & wind shear is pretty strong. But - as I point out often - the presence of Saharan dust & dry air does not necessarily simply equate to no tropical development. As is the case it would seem with this wave, the wave may have a chance to organize once it’s out of the “dust cloud” which looks to be about the middle of next week. The GFS is weaker & continues a mostly due west track while the European is stronger in the long run & ends more to the north between July 3rd & the 8th.

“Buresh Bottom Line”: still early on either of these tropical waves, but it’s something to be aware of. *Potentially* particularly concerning will be the 2nd wave which has a *chance* to impact the Caribbean. Stay up to date.....

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is unseasonably high for this time of year:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

June tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November (7 hurricanes so far, 19 tropical storms):

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Beryl” is the first name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: