Talking the Tropics With Mike: Debby over the far Western Atlantic

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: Breezy with a high rip current risk at area beaches through Wed.

The “Buresh Bottom Line”:

* Debby hit the Florida Big Bend with a landfall about 7am. NHC: “Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the center of Hurricane Debby has made landfall around 700 AM EDT (1100 UTC) near Steinhatchee, Florida. Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure at landfall was around 979 mb (28.91 in) and the maximum winds were estimated to be around 80 mph (130 km/h).”

* Northeast Florida/Southeast Georgia impacts are lessening relegated to a gusty breeze & a high rip current risk at area beaches.

* Realize impacts from Debby will occur many miles from the center & OUTSIDE of the forecast cone.

* Heads-up the Carolina’s all the way to New England (perhaps).

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

A Storm Surge WATCH: North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm WARNING: North of the mouth of thee Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm WATCH: North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina

(1) “Debby” - The 4th Atlantic named storm of the season continues to moved steadily northward now over the Eastern Gulf strengthening into the 2nd hurricane of the season with the 11pm Sunday, 08/04 advisory. Debby was intensifying right up to landfall but thankfully ran out of time over the warm Gulf water with a 7am EDT landfall at Steinhatchee some 60-70 miles north/northwest of Cedar Key.

As expected, Debby is moving only very slowly emerging over the far Western Atlantic east of Savannah, Ga. early Tue. evening. The 36 hour transit over land has taken a toll with a very broad center & bands of convection far from the center. Such a satellite presentation suggests any re-strengthening will take some time.

Given that Debby will be moving back over land by Thursday, it’s unlikely the tropical cyclone will have to time to quickly strengthen.

Most of the global forecast models have come into decent agreement on Debby well north & northeast of Jacksonville through Wed. A fairly sharp turn to the northwest then north should occur Wed. night/Thu. as an upper level trough moves along the U.S./Canadian border finally picking up Debby & accelerating the system to the northeast inland from the coast.

Despite its weakened state & transitioning to non-tropical within a few days, heavy rain will occur all the way from the Carolina’s to New England.

Keep in mind impacts from Debby will extend well away from the center...

Jacksonville N.W.S.:

500mb - about 30,000 feet showing the dipping trough - jet stream - between the two strong high pressure cells. It’s becoming more clear that the trough will not fully pick up Debby & a new ridge taking over will cause Debby to either move back inland over the Carolina’s by Thursday. But the next trough does look to finally capture Debby late in the week:

Wind shear:

(2) A couple of active tropical waves are over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Forecast models are not too excited about the waves for the most part, but it’s something to watch as the African “wave train” starts to ramp up & the MJO pulse spreads eastward. A lead wave is over the Western Caribbean & still has some longer term potential over Mexico or *possibly* even the Western Gulf though forecast models - FOR NOW - have backed off on much development.

Another wave may try to develop & organize over or near the Southwest Atlantic by the middle to end of next week - roughly Aug. 14-18th.

The velocity potential anomalies map below shows a lot of sinking air (brown lines) - & a lack of convection - over the Atlantic Basin to the far East Pacific while rising air (green lines) is over the Central & West Pacific more convection is notable. Often the green areas (MJO pulse) will correlate with increased tropical activity. So it’s the W. Pacific that will be more active now but this pulse should move eastward - signs of which we’re already seeing - helping to set off a return to a more active Atlantic through at least the middle of August.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is unseasonably high for this time of year:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

August tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August (1 hurricane so far, 3 tropical storms):

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Ernesto” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: