Talking the Tropics With Mike: Hilary to impact the SW U.S.... several areas to watch over Atlantic

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Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.

No significant impacts from the tropics for NE Fl./SE Ga. through the weekend (a few showers Sunday from a tropical wave moving across S. Florida)...

Over the Atlantic:

Overall... wind shear is rather strong & the mid & upper level moisture is inconsistent & rather dry across a good part of the Central Atlantic...

(1) ‘99-L′ - over the Central Atlantic will slowly move to the W/NW & may slowly develop/organize. This system *appears* headed for the SW & Western Atlantic by the middle & end of next week as it slowly turns more northward.

(2) ‘98-L′ - over the Eastern Atlantic came off the coast of Africa Wed. This wave may develop further but is also likely turn more northward relatively early.

(3) a weak tropical wave will move across S. Florida Sunday then over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Its swift movement to the west should preclude significant development in the long run but some weak low pressure may eventually form over the Western Gulf by the middle of next week. This could bring an uptick in rainfall for parched Texas later next week.

Check out the upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean. The warmth is very deep. But keep in mind warm ocean temps. alone doesn’t necessarily equate to a “big” hurricane season (need other ingredients & factors to be favorable too):

In the East Pacific... an interesting situation is unfolding as rapidly strengthening “Hilary” moves N/NW & will impact the Baja of California by late Sat. into Sunday. Though much weaker (much cooler water temps. + land interaction) by late Sunday into Monday upon approach to the south & southwest coast of California, there will still be a surge of tropical moisture northward into California & perhaps parts of Arizona & Nevada that may cause heavy rain & flash flooding.

While such a storm has happened before, it is pretty rare. Tropical storm “Kathleen” in 1976 brought very heavy rain to parts of California & a tropical storm in 1939 also brought very heavy rain & flooding to parts of California. Interestingly - both were during El Nino years (weak in ‘76 but strong in ‘39).

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

July tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Emily” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.: