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-- THERE WILL BE *NO* IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS FOR JACKSONVILLE/NE FL./SE GA. THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK --
Tropical depression #25 formed over the Western Caribbean Fri. morning & strengthened into tropical storm “Gamma” Fri. evening. It’s the fastest ever to the 24th tropical storm of the season beating the record of Oct. 27, 2005.
Overall... the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico continue to be areas to watch for at least the next couple weeks... along with nearby areas of the SW Atlantic. If traveling anytime soon to any areas susceptible to tropical systems, stay up to date on the latest, updated forecast......
The combination of a tropical wave, lower pressures & an old front has finally developed low pressure at the surface over the far Western Caribbean which was upgraded Fri. to t.d. #25 then tropical storm Gamma.. Some models (GFS) show a more northward jog initially allowing for more development then a turn west. Others (Euro & UKMET) take the system right over the Yucatan before moving back over the SW Gulf. At the moment, there is a lot of dry air & shear over the W/NW Gulf, but that will change some next week. So there is a lot of uncertainty in the end game which could ultimately be a hurricane somewhere over the Western Gulf.
Virtually all the models are having a hard time with so much low pressure at the low latitudes vs. a lot of high pressure at high latitudes. And by that I mean you get models showing frequent low pressure areas that then fade or - in some model runs - suddenly strengthen. But then seemingly just “go away” in future forecast model runs. Some models - the UKMET in particular - just show “fat” areas of low pressure. So the bottom line is that there is a lot of uncertainty - especially in the longer range (more so than usual). There has been some recent agreement/tendencies to develop the 2nd tropical wave moving across the Caribbean which then turns more northward into the Gulf of Mexico while Gamma “peels” away to the west/southwest over the Bay of Campeche.
Such a pattern (dominant high pressure across northern latitudes) this time of year often does yield tropical trouble that begins in or near the Caribbean. Personally I would be surprised if there was not at least one Cat. 3+ hurricane that develops out of this pattern. I don’t type this to try to “cry wolf” - it’s my job to forecast. Hopefully whatever does develop does not end being a major landfalling storm. In any case... stay tuned!
Whatever development there might be does look to be a slow process which is not unusual for this time of year & in an area (Caribbean/Gulf/SW Atlantic) favored as we move into October & past the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
There are multiple tropical waves (E. Caribbean, Central Atlantic, off the coast of Africa) moving west across the Atlantic (see satellite photos) right now. While not developing for the moment, these waves might become “trouble makers” in the long term once into areas more favorable for development such as the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic.
Persistent, broad & strong high pressure at northern latitudes helping to induce low pressure at lower latitudes:
In the longer range.... vertical velocities do appear to become more favorable across the Atlantic Basin Oct. 10-20 - “ish”. “Velocity Potential Anomalies” show a good deal of sinking air (brown lines) right now but more favorable rising air (green lines) should push east from the Pacific in due time which does match a climatological 2nd peak of sorts (Oct. 15-20) for Atlantic tropical development. This doesn’t mean the U.S. is necessarily in trouble, it just means the Atlantic may become more active again & time will tell where & how storms move.
October tropical cyclone origin points are clustered over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic:
Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively (major wave action at Fl./Ga. beaches through early next week due to persistent brisk onshore flow (high pressure to the north) combined with easterly swells from distant Teddy:
